I discussed this with ajtj99 last night on his thread and came to a similar conclusion to his. Here's my WAG in graphical format: <img src=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=%24NDX%2Cuu%5Bw%2Ca%5Ddaclynay%5Bdb%5D%5Bp%5D%5Bi%5D%5BJ9321685%2CY%5D>