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Re: jbog post# 10830

Monday, 08/12/2013 12:50:46 PM

Monday, August 12, 2013 12:50:46 PM

Post# of 20689
Jbog,

Try not to lie when attempting to make a discredited point.

{{vinman,

That's more than once that you have stated that Momenta would be getting $80-$100 million/quarter despite Amphastar's entry as long as Momenta's share of revenue said the same. }}


No, it is not more than once. I believe this is the first time I made such a comment. If I was wrong, it is irrelevant to my main point below.


{{Get the facts straight, Sandoz's gross sales are in the $50 million dollar per quarter range so there's no way possible that Momenta would be even in the ballpark of your numbers.}}


As usual, you miss the point. I stated that MNTA's revenues would be far greater now if they had the same deal for mENOX as they have for mCOPAX even with the entry of Amphastar and the second generic. This is indisputable, or are you going to argue this?

MNTA's stock price would also be significantly higher, which is also indisputable to most people but I expect that you would concoct some lame argument as to why it wouldn't be. As far as my numbers, since it is all hypothetical, I did a quick back of the envelope calculation while I was eating breakfast. MNTA had $4.4 million in revenues last quarter, so I crudely estimated $4 million was from mENOX. They had 50% split before Amphastar, but dropped to on the order of 10%-15% split now. I used the mid-point (12.5%), then 4x the $4 million is $20 million/quarter or $80 million/year. I put an outer range to give room for lower margins and price increases.