The Black Box

[Alex G]

"e on the spx will be around 50 this year"


that's a pretty optimistic forecast

have you been noticing all the continued warnings and downward revisions?

and the big question is-- are you speaking of "pro-forma" eps?... because current GAAP estimates for 2003 are
$34.86/share, a 25% increase over 2002.

imo, pro-forma is nothing more than an accounting trick

and we haven't even gotten into options expensing, pention fund problems, and goodwill accounting... which when addressed, will further erode the REAL earnings per share

Current (GAAP) EPS is $28.00, which = P/E of 31

"Core" EPS is $23.75, P/E is 37

historic S&P pe ratio,, historically 10-20, with higher yield

so I guess it depends on what you "believe" in