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Former Wall Street "Elf" Comments on Today's Gold Market

Former Wall Street "Elf" Comments on Today's Gold Market
By Jon A. Nones
26 Dec 2005 at 11:54 AM EST

St. LOUIS (ResourceInvestor.com) -- In a brief interview with Resource Investor, Mark Leibovit, chief market strategist for VRTrader.com, commented on today’s gold market and the driving forces behind the uptrend. Formally known as the Wall Street “Elf,” Leibovit proclaims himself as a “to the point guy.” And to the point, he predicts 20 years of a bull market, with gold at $750/oz to $800/oz in three years.

RESOURCE INVESTOR: After hitting $544/oz in mid-December, the gold price has fallen back considerably – currently in the $490s. Is this just a simple correction or is there more at play here?

MARK LEIBOVIT: It was interesting that Newmont Mining [NYSE:NEM] topped out in December 2003 then fell into May 2004; hit highs in November 2004 then fell into May 2005; and up again on December 12, 2005. Is NEM going to fall into May 2006, since everybody is so bullish on gold? We could be in the throes of a similar cyclical pattern.

RESOURCE INVESTOR: Do you subscribe to the belief that “the gold market is being manipulated?”

MARK LEIBOVIT: Absolutely. From my understanding, the Blanchard suit against Barrick clearly demonstrated in testimony that the market was being manipulated, possibly even under the direction of Alan Greenspan himself.

RESOURCE INVESTOR: What are your views on all of the news concerning the potential for increased central bank gold buying? All hype or viable forecast?



MARK LEIBOVIT: I think this group was misinformed when they elected to dump gold holdings in recent years and now will have to ‘save face’ and come back into the market as buyers.

RESOURCE INVESTOR: There’s a lot of economists concerned about Ben Bernanke’s policies. How do you feel about the new Fed chairman and his potential impact on the economy? Will he keep up with interest rate hikes?

MARK LEIBOVIT: I think gold is running partially as result of concern over his previous comments something to the effect of “keeping the printing presses running.” I think he will put a halt to further interest rate hikes, but whether he sticks to that plan is presently uncertain. Overall, I think he is another product of Wall Street, just as Alan Greenspan and the proverbial tail will wag the dog as we’ve seen in the past.

RESOURCE INVESTOR: What’s the future of the dollar?

MARK LEIBOVIT: Our work was bullish for 2005 and we’re working on our 2006 model now. Will know more in a few weeks.

RESOURCE INVESTOR: How much will the world’s instability (e.g., war in Iraq, political tensions, global conflicts, etc.) impact the gold market?

MARK LEIBOVIT: It should have a continued impact going forward, but I cannot pinpoint which event will have more a measured impact than another.

RESOURCE INVESTOR: What are your predictions near-term?

MARK LEIBOVIT: Gold hit our $535 target. Next target is $585. Like to see a retracement back to the $475.00 or lower between now and Spring, but holding on to core positions.

RESOURCE INVESTOR: What about long-term?

MARK LEIBOVIT: I subscribe to the view we’re in a 20-year bull market cycle. Anything is possible over such a period of time. For now, let’s say $750-$800 an ounce within three years.


LINK: http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=15654