I disagree on that. The notion that there are powerful forces out there trying to "get" your stock is almost always unfounded.
I'd argue the difference between my analysis and that of most sell-side folks is the willingness to project events for which there is, as-yet, no hard evidence. So I have a looser standard for what I am willing to take into account.
It's a bit like the difference between a service like Uptodate and the rigorous evidence-based medicine folks. So for migraine prophylaxis, Uptodate recommends (or at least used to) as a first choice treatment calcium blockers. That's a class of drugs where evidence of efficacy is distinctly weaker than for other drugs, so the evidence-based folks wouldn't dream of using it first. Uptodate reasons it has better tolerability and might work, so no harm in trying it first.