da cheif - You know what they say about a blind squirrel. You have no doubt called a couple of bear moves in your long career. How could you not? Congrats on this one.
Just one other thought. Why do you have to keep going back 20-30 years to find any success? Yes, my friend, we have all seen the old articles you keep bringing back again and again in hopes of adding some credibility to your analysis. In your case it is certainly true that past success is no gaurantee of future success. Your last 13 years have been a testament to the frivolity of a buy and hold strategy thinking the market can do nothing but go up. I personally think OLD TIMERS should be treated with respect, being one myself. But being one gives me the freedom to correct you. I don't think one's age should be used as an excuse for being obnoxious and mean and just plain silly most of the time. One should never lose one's love of the truth. I understand that the truth can be painful. But you are an embarrassment to those of us who are trying to grow old gracefully.