I think it’s a bit too early to be making any declarations of lateness. Here are but 2 examples of the time frames involved from announcement of LOI to formal completion of contract.
As related on this board this morning, Caracal Energy yesterday announced the completion of their buy-in by GlencoreXstrata for their Chadian fields. The LOI for the deal was announced in September ’12, making it a full 9 months before the contract was completed. http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=89108519
By contrast, Adamantine completed their farm-out of their Kenyan 11B field to BowLeven in only 3 months. They were awarded the block at the end of May ’12 and the contract was completed mid-September of the same year. http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=79856993
So the demonstrated range in just these 2 examples is 3-9 months from initiation to completion.
One factor I know everyone is aware of is the pending deadline for ERHC management’s .20 options. The two-year time frame expires Jan 6, 2014. Given that the share price needs to meet or exceed .75 for 30 days for the options to vest, then we are looking at a deadline of roughly Dec 1 for the Kenya LOI to be a viable catalyst to achieve the required stock price. December is 7 months from when ERHC announced its LOI and within the demonstrated range of similar African LOIs.
As such, I think it may be wise to give it until at least the 4th quarter of this year before people start getting too anxious.
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