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Re: ReturntoSender post# 5466

Thursday, 12/15/2005 9:31:57 PM

Thursday, December 15, 2005 9:31:57 PM

Post# of 12809
From Briefing.com: 4:28PM Integrated Silicon delays their 10-K (ISSI) 6.71 +0.01:In a filing today the co announces "On November 3, 2005, the co announced its financial results for its fourth fiscal quarter and fiscal year ended September 30, 2005 and noted that it was still analyzing the impairment of its investments and had engaged a qualified valuation analyst to assist in this assessment. Despite diligence efforts, the Company's analysis of the impairment of its investment in Signia Technologies, Inc. and the report of the valuation analyst as to such matter is not yet final. The Company therefore is unable to file its Annual Report on Form 10-K on the required date without unreasonable effort or expense."

Close Dow -1.84 at 10881.67, S&P -1.80 at 1270.94, Nasdaq -1.96 at 2260.63: The market's major averages relinquished early gains and only recovered enough in late trading to close just below the flat line, as strong signs of underlying economic expansion and ambiguous inflation data clouded the possibility of an end to further Fed tightening. Mixed earnings reports and higher borrowing costs intraday also prompted modest consolidation among many of the market leaders responsible for recent blue chip gains. Before the bell, total November CPI dropped a headline-inspiring 0.6%, as a record 8.0% monthly decline in energy prices helped remove some of the anxiety tied to higher energy bills. Nonetheless, a second consecutive 0.2% rise in the more closely watched core rate, especially after five straight 0.1% increases, suggested a slight firming trend in broad inflationary pressures, adding to the argument that if core-CPI continues to rise at a 2 1/2% annual rate into 2006 the Fed will probably keep raising rates through mid-year. Further, with the Fed saying just two days ago that "possible increases in resource utilization...

have the potential to add to inflation pressures,' a larger than expected rise in Nov. capacity utilization to 80.2%, which eclipsed the key 80% barrier over which inflationary pressures are generated, perhaps also underpinned a sense of nervousness for participants. With regard to sector leadership (or a lack thereof), a 1.4% decline in oil prices ($59.99/bbl -$0.86) prompted investors to lock in some of the Energy sector's market leading 35.8% year-to-date advance. Consolidation in Financial, spurred by the yield on the 10-yr note revisiting the psychological 4.50% level midday and mixed earnings reports, also weighed on overall sentiment. Not even continued upside momentum in brokerage led by a strong Q4 report from Bear Stearns (BSC 116.50 +6.00) and upside guidance from E*Trade (ET 21.18 +0.71), which supports our Market Weight reiteration on the Financial sector, was enough to counteract profit-taking in the resurgent banking group and a Q4 earnings miss from Goldman Sachs (GS 128.30 -1.33). Weakness in Technology, led by losses in semiconductor and software, also weighed on the proceedings while Consumer Discretionary also lost ground as Lennar Corp's (LEN 62.61 +2.03) strong Q4 report and upbeat analyst comments on eBay (EBAY 46.02 +0.73) failed to keep the sector in the green. Health Care, however, finished the day on a positive note, as biotech got a boost following Amgen's (AMGN 80.44 +3.66) decision to buy Abgenix (ABGX 21.68 +7.03) for $2.2 bln while reaffirmed FY05 and FY06 guidance from Merck (MRK 29.77 +0.57) provided an additional source of sector support. Consumer Staples also posted a modest gain, as a 3.9% surge in Altria Group (MO 76.62 +2.89), which hit an all-time high after the Illinois Supreme Court overturned the $10.1 bln verdict, offset consolidation in Procter & Gamble (PG 58.99 -0.63) -- the sector's most influential component -- which hit a new 52-week high yesterday. Industrials also traded higher as upbeat guidance (last night) helped close United Technologies (UTX 57.60 +0.51) at a new all-time high. DJTA +0.7, DJUA +0.3, DOT +0.1, Nasdaq 100 +0.2, Russell 2000 -0.9, SOX -0.5, S&P Midcap 400 -0.5, XOI -1.5, NYSE Adv/Dec 1159/2151, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1182/1841

2:35PM Tegal receives orders for 900 and 980ACS series etch tools; the total value of these recent orders was approx $1.5 mln (TGAL) 0.58 +0.03:

11:38 am Lennar Corp. (LEN)

61.96 +1.38: Notwithstanding concerns about a material slowdown in the housing market, shares of Lennar Corp. traded higher on Thursday after the homebuilder said fourth quarter profits from continuing operations rose a better than expected 55% from last year. Specifically, Lennar posted earnings of $581.2 million, or $3.54 per share, as revenues increased 42% year/year to about $5.03 billion. According to Reuters Estimates, the company was expected to report earnings of $3.34 per share on revenue of $4.99 billion.

Lennar also reiterated its previous outlook for fiscal 2006 with EPS of $9.25. Analysts, on average, were looking for 2006 earnings of $9.30 per share. However, as investors remained focused on the company's strong fourth quarter results, the stock trended higher during the regular trading session, gaining more than 2%, despite the lackluster guidance.

On the top line, revenues from home sales rose 39% during the quarter to $4.7 billion, fueled by an 18% increase in the number of new home deliveries, as well as an 18% increase in the average selling price. According to the company, new home sales rose to 13,851 homes in the fourth quarter, with growth across all its regions, while the average sales price of homes delivered increased to $338,000 from $287,00 in 2004. Gross margin improved 140 basis points to 27%, due largely to a more favorable mix in higher margin states, namely Arizona and Florida.

Despite the strong quarterly results, Briefing.com continues to maintain an Underweight rating on the Consumer Discretionary sector. Although homebuilders were an earlier pocket of strength for the sector, rising interest rates, wavering consumer confidence, and signs of "more a normalized level" of sales and price appreciation have clouded the outlook for the group. After peaking in July, homebuilding stocks have fallen sharply. In particular, LEN is down nearly 10% since reaching a high of $68.86 in July.

--Richard Jahnke, Briefing.com

10:57 am E*Trade Financial (ET)

20.85 +0.38: Following Wednesday's close, E*Trade Financial issued upside FY06 earnings guidance. The company foresees $1.30-1.45 per share on $2.2-2.4 billion in net revenues. The forecast excludes a nickel per share in integration-related expenses associated with the recent acquisitions of Harrisdirect and BrownCo. E*Trade believes that $0.03 of the expected $0.05 per share dilution will be realized in 1Q06, with a penny realized in the subsequent quarter and the remainder in the third quarter. According to Reuters Estimates, analysts had been expecting the broker to report $1.28 per share on $2.1 billion in revenues for FY06.

As for the aforementioned acquisitions, E*Trade expects them to be accretive by $0.19 in 2006 - four cents higher than what had been previously announced. The company noted that it was able to finance and close both mergers ahead of schedule. In keeping with its growth strategy, the company has decided to exit the remaining portion of E*Trade Professional and is in negotiations to sell the business to its current management team. The divesture eliminates about 30,955 daily average revenue trades (DARTs) from November's total trade volume, but has no impact upon the company's 2005 outlook. In October, E*Trade indicated that it anticipates FY05 EPS of $1.04-$1.09, a range that brackets the consensus estimate.

Additionally, the broker reported November DARTs of 123,506 - a 30% rise over the prior-year period and an 8% increase over October. Gross new accounts totaled 91,338, more than half of which were new investing/trading accounts; the balance were new deposit/lending accounts. E*Trade also reported a 55% year-over-year jump in total client assets.

Briefing.com reiterated its Market Weight rating yesterday on the Financial sector, but called attention to the investment banks and brokers as a favored group. Trading at 15.1x estimated FY06 earnings, the stock is valued at a discount to chief competitors Ameritrade (AMTD) and Charles Schwab (SHC), which sport estimated P/E multiples of 26.8x and 21.8x, respectively. (Disclosure: Briefing.com has a business relationship with E*Trade, Ameritrade, and Charles Schwab.)

--Lisa Beilfuss, Briefing.com

10:36 am Merck (MRK)

29.83 +0.63: Beleaguered drug maker Merck on Thursday announced a restructuring plan to help restore its leadership position in the pharmaceutical industry, amid slowing profit growth due to generic competition and a host of legal issues related to its once-popular painkiller Vioxx. In addition, the company reaffirmed its outlook for the remainder of the year and fiscal 2006.

Merck, which has struggled recently due to key patent losses and increased generic competition, said it plans to increase productivity by focusing R&D efforts in nine priority disease areas, including Alzheimer's disease, atherosclerosis, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, novel vaccines, obesity, oncology, pain and sleep disorders. By prioritizing the company's resources on these areas, Merck said it expects to accelerate the development of innovative and differentiated products to bolster its pipeline. In addition, the company plans to continue to streamline and restructure its marketing and sales operations to generate greater efficiencies and more effectively demonstrate product value.

Last month, the company said it would cut 7,000 jobs, or about 11% of its worldwide staff, and close or sell five of its 31 manufacturing facilities. As part of its ongoing restructuring program, Merck expects to generate $1 billion in additional cost savings through 2010, bringing its total expected savings for the period to $4.5 to $5 billion. It said that while it implements the fundamental changes to its business model, its current roster of innovative products, anticipated new product introductions, and costs savings initiatives will position it to deliver top line growth and double-digit earnings growth, excluding charges, over the next three to five years. Supported by its strong pipeline, which is showing progress with five products in, or on track for, phase III testing by the first quarter of 2006, the company added that it expects to deliver sustained revenue and earnings growth after 2010.

For fiscal 2005, Merck reaffirmed its outlook for earnings of $2.47 to $2.51, excluding the impact of tax expenses and restructuring charges. At the same time, the company maintained its forecast for fiscal 2006. It expects 2006 EPS of $2.28 to $2.36, including stock option expensing, but excluding restructuring charges. Analysts, on average, are expecting fiscal 2005 EPS of $2.50 and fiscal 2006 EPS of $2.35, according to Reuters Estimates.

Despite the announced restructuring plan and upbeat outlook, the ongoing legal issues with respect to the company's withdrawn painkiller Vioxx remain a significant overhang. As of November 30, 2005, Merck faces approximately 9,500 lawsuits related to Vioxx after studies linked the drug to increased risk of heart attack and stroke in long term users. As previously reported, the first federal trial against Merck's Vioxx was declared a mistrial by a Texas judge last week, as the jury was unable to reach a verdict. The company noted that it is prepared to retry the case if necessary.

--Richard Jahnke, Briefing.com

10:29 am Altria Group (MO)

78.31 +4.58: In a favorable turn of events for Altria Group (MO), the Illinois Supreme Court reversed a lower court ruling in which the company's Philip Morris USA unit was handed a $10.1 billion judgment in the Price case in which it was accused of deluding Illinois smokers about the health benefits of smoking "light" cigarettes versus regular ones. Additionally, the Supreme Court remanded the case to the lower court with instructions to dismiss the case.

This judicial outcome is what the market had been anticipating, but nonetheless, its official nature has prompted a spike in Altria's stock, which is trading at an all-time high.

The relief for investors is based on the following considerations: (1) the ruling sets aside a judgment that Philip Morris indicated in the past would bankrupt the company (2) it paves the way for added shareholder value to be created as it will allow Altria to move forward with a plan to break up the company's tobacco and food businesses and (3) it should help bolster Philip Morris's defense, and that of other tobacco companies, in other litigation.

Shares of Kraft Foods (KFT 29.65 +0.71), which is 86%-owned by Altria, are also trading higher.

--Patrick J. O'Hare, Briefing.com

09:37 am Goldman Sachs (GS)

129.63: It has been a busy morning for the brokers with Bear and Goldman hitting the wires before the open. Goldman, the most profitable top-tier Wall Street firm, reported net income increased to $1.63 bln, or $3.35 per share, in the quarter ending on November 30th - up a whopping 37% from last year. Revenues, net of interest expense, surged to $6.29 bln from $4.58 bln in the year-ago period. Considering the group has a strong history of not only beating expectations, but surpassing estimates by a wide margins, Goldman's in-line report could cause some profit taking in shares, which we think longer-term investors should take advantage.

Goldman closed 2005 marking its best annual results in its history. Investment banking has a main driver for the firm. It holds the prestigious title as top equity underwriter and in completed mergers and acquisitions to date. Investment banking revenues soared to $3.67 bln - the best annual pace in four years. FICC (fixed income, currency, and commodities) has also been a lead contributor, generating revenue growth of 16% in Q4 to $8.48 bln. Equities revenues grew 21% to $5.65 bln. Asset Management rose 16% to $2.96 bln, with record assets under management of $532 bln and net inflows of $63 bln in 2005.

Non-compensation expenses rose 10% quarter/quarter and 9% year/year to $1.37 bln. Pretax margin was 39.4%, up from 33% in Q3 on lower operating expenses and compensation of 38.8% of total revenues. Goldman repurchased 63.7 mln shares at a price of $111.57 during the year. Notwithstanding the 24% rise to date in shares, Goldman remains on our buy list in 2006 due to its diverse product and geographical reach, status as the premier global investment bank, quality and breadth of talent, risk management, and focused strategy. Further, with 40% of Goldman's profit derived outside the US, its prospects rest on the health of the global economy and capital markets, which are being supported by positive economic conditions, corporate profits, and global equity markets.

--Kimberly DuBord, Briefing.com

09:16 am Bear Stearns (BSC)

110.50: With the yield curve flattening, interest rates rising, and the mortgage market waning, conditions are less than ideal looking ahead for Bear Stearns. The firm has the second largest exposure to the fixed income markets, which is facing a challenging environment, not to mention it's one of the largest mortgage-backed securities underwriters in the market. Bear generated Q4 profit growth of 15%, compared to Lehman's profit growth of 41%, on strength in its fixed-income and equity operations. As interest rates rise, slowing mortgage applications are hurting profit growth. Additionally, Bear's lack of international exposure also remains a key weakness.

Nevertheless, analysts missed the boat this quarter as Bear surpassed the consensus estimate by a whopping $0.27. Net earnings were a record $407.0 mln, or $2.90 per share, up 15% from last year's $352.6 mln. Earnings were assisted by a lower tax rate. Net revenues rose 3% y/y and 4% q/q to $1.9 bln with the sequential rise coming from fixed income and equities, up 12-13% q/q. The annualized return on common shareholders' equity, a measure of how effectively the firm uses reinvested earnings to generate profits, rose to 17.7% and ended the year at 16.5%. Full year earnings were a record $10.31, up 6% on revenue growth of 9%. This marks the end of Bear's fourth consecutive year of record profits, albeit the pace is slowing, due to merger activity and combined growth in fixed-income, trading, and underwriting.

Bear also announced it has submitted an Offer of Settlement to the SEC to resolve previously disclosed investigations related to mutual fund trading for $250 mln. The board also approved a dividend hike to $0.28 per share and increased its share repurchase authorization to $1.5 bln. Shares have gained 8% this year and are currently trading at 10.7x earnings compared to the S&P 500 Investment Banking & Brokerage index, which is up 18% and trading at 12.8x.

--Kimberly DuBord, Briefing.com

09:01 am Amgen (AMGN)

76.78: Amgen, the world's largest biotechnology company, has agreed to acquire Abgenix (ABGX) for $2.2 billion in cash plus the assumption of debt. Under the terms of the agreement, ABGX shareholders will receive $22.50 per common share, a 54% premium over Wednesday's closing price. Pending regulatory and shareholder approvals, Amgen estimates that the transaction will be completed by the end of the first quarter of 2006. Throughout 2006 and 2007, the merger is expected to be dilutive by $0.05-0.10 per share; thereafter, the merger is projected to be accretive by an unspecified amount.

Panitumumab was the acquisition's key driver. The drug, used to treat metastatic colorectal cancer patients who have failed standard chemotherapy, is the first epidermal growth factor receptor (RGFr) inhibitor to demonstrate a significant improvement in progression-free survival. After acquiring Immunex Corp. in 2002, Amgen has led the development and commercialization of panitumumab. The buyout of Abgenix, which specializes in the development of therapeutic antibodies, provides Amgen with full ownership of one of its most advanced pipeline products, and extends its existing oncology and supportive care franchise. Assuming successful clinical trials, the company believes that potential worldwide sales of the drug could reach $2 billion or more.

Aside from the treatment of colorectal cancer, the drug is also being tested in the treatment of cancers that include head, neck, lung, and kidney. Later this week, Amgen and Abgenix plan to initiate a biologics license application for panitumumab.

Panitumumab was generated with Abgenix's XenoMouse technology. Through the merger, Amgen expects to realize added value due to elimination of a tiered royalty that it would have paid to Abgenix on future sales of denosumab, a protein that promotes bone removal, which was also created using XenoMouse.

--Lisa Beilfuss, Briefing.com

08:54 am Activision (ATVI)

14.30: Activision on Wednesday warned that net revenues and earnings for the remainder of fiscal 2006 will be lower than expected, due to underperformance in key software titles and weak videogame market conditions. Although there are a number of critical selling days left in the quarter, the videogame publisher said earnings will be significantly lower than its previous outlook.

Activision noted that while a number of its products are outperforming the competition in the marketplace, its overall portfolio of products are not selling as well as had been anticipated. As a result, the company believes reorders of its most profitable titles will be lower than expected. In addition, Activision cited weakness in the U.S. and European markets, driven by the transition to next-generation hardware and software, as well as declines in consumer spending.

Following its second quarter report, the company said it expected fiscal 2006 earnings of $0.52 per share and raised its revenue forecast to $1.48 billion. At the same time, it reaffirmed its guidance for the third quarter, with projected EPS of $0.52 on revenue of $790 million. For the fourth quarter, the company forecast EPS of $0.05 and revenue of $226 million. According to Reuters Estimates, analysts were expecting the company to post full year earnings of $0.54 per share on revenue of $1.49 billion; third quarter earnings of $0.53 on revenue of $789.2 million; and fourth quarter earnings of $0.06 per share on revenue of $227.8 million.

--Richard Jahnke, Briefing.com

09:26 am Mattel downgraded to Sell at Opco (MAT): Oppenheimer downgrades MAT to Sell from Neutral and sets a $13.50 tgt, citing: 1) their belief that MAT could report a 4Q05 downside surprise, 2) possible Toys "R" Us store closures in 2006, 3) continuing raw material cost pressures, 4) store checks indicate Barbie continues to have growth problems due to competition in girls' toys, 5) MAT's cash flow decline for 3 consecutive years, and 6) high valuation.

09:24 am AmSouth Banc downgraded to Sell at Sandler (ASO): Sandler downgrades ASO to Sell from Hold based on valuation and their continued belief that the bank faces potential earnings headwinds on multiple fronts.

09:23 am Watsco downgraded to Neutral at Baird; tgt upped to $62 (WSO): Baird downgrades WSO to Neutral from Outperform and raises their tgt to $62 from $58, based on valuation. Firm believes expectations have increased quickly and much of the good news is in the stock, and think that Carrier's comments yesterday could create a medium-term overhang

09:22 am Equity Office downgraded to Sell at Stifel (EOP): Stifel downgrades EOP to Sell from Hold citing the dividend cut and lack of further sales. Firm disagrees with the 2006 strategy, expects a number of income-oriented investors to exit the stock shortly, and says the share repurchase program can only support the share price for so long. Firm thinks there are better investment opportunities in the office sector.



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