SwingTrade Member Forum

[HomerRomer]

I was thinking about the odds of HENC hitting 3 straight dry well and decided to compare it to cards. It is a fact that the same companies HENC is using to drill these same formations discovered in this same area are successful in the mid 90's% range, so the odds of them hitting a dry hole on the first try is around 5%.

The odds of flipping up an ace in a regular deck is 4/52 or 7.7%...so it's a little more likely flipping up an ace on your first card than HENC having their first hole turn out dry.

The odds of the first 2 cards being aces are 1 in 221 or a .45% chance.

I like the fact that there is a better chance me going to Vegas and being delt pocket aces for my one and only hand I play than HENC not hitting on one of it's first two wells. It is also nice knowing that HENC already has the money in it's stack committed to getting a third card...0 for 3 is not likely...crazy odds are in HENC's favor!! Approximately one hundredth of 1 percent chance of 3 dry wells.