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Re: jbog post# 161715

Wednesday, 05/29/2013 7:44:36 AM

Wednesday, May 29, 2013 7:44:36 AM

Post# of 257257

It's funny that rates* could almost triple* from today's rate to get back to the rates that existed when you posted that August 2010



BUT will they?

Rates plunged in the 1980-90's in Japan and have not recovered:

http://www.gecodia.com/Japan-Government-10Y-Yields_a1305.html



The most pervasive error being made by financial types is the proposition that interest rates will return to "normal" levels in months to a couple of years at most. And they have been saying this for years.

Ultimately, rates will be a function of economic growth.


ij


*Not sure which "rates" you are referring to. 10 yr T's are only 30 bps lower than they were in August 2010.


It is astonishing what foolish things one can temporarily believe if one thinks too long alone ... where it is often impossible to bring one's ideas to a conclusive test either formal or experimental. J.M. Keynes

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