Biotech Values

[mcbio]

I am back in MACK and AVEO, added ARIA significantly, also started SGYP due to major weakness from all four of them recently.

Good to hear we are on the same side on AVEO. I recently took the plunge as well after the ODAC plunge. I thought about waiting until formal CRL from FDA in July, as I think shares could still sell off a little more even though CRL is widely expected, but decided to go ahead and get in. I'm willing to gamble that tivo is an active drug that has some advantages over the competition but just took part in a poorly designed trial. Also, during recent Astellas quarterly CC, which took place after ODAC, one slide showed they are still preparing to file the MAA in the EU. I think that if Astellas does ultimately file in EU that might cause some degree of rebound in shares, even if EU doesn't ultimately approve. There will also be read-out from several other trials for tivo in 2014 related to biomarker studies, TNBC, and CRC data. All told, several shots on goal and AVEO may only need one to pan out to rebound from this valuation. Can't ignore their burn, though, and it's possible we may well have to incur dilution later this year. But, I am willing to stomach that and take a gamble here at this valuation, for better or worse.