I think the fact that you trade the futures is a moot point as to if the commercials are long or short on the S&P. With the big contract position being so close I would say that they are neutral at best. Since the long and short total is close, I think to base a trade off of the commercials net big contract long position I would a want consider the mini's as well. I would have to agree with Mish in that the commercials appear to be net bearish. The divergence between the two does cause one to ponder.
Nice job on those futures trades. Happy to see you doing well.