Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[wahz]

Dear DecisionPoint.com Subscribers:

I would not normally intrude on your weekend, but we have a situation that
is likely to raise questions and cause some confusion.

For the week ending 3/14/2003 NYSE Members recorded net buying of +588,248.
This is almost three times the previously highest reading of +202,697
recorded for the week ending 7/12/2002.

The immediate problem is that the number is so high that the server will be
unable to generate a current chart until we have made some adjustments to
the database capacity. There is, however, one of my homemade charts at the
bottom of the page that is up-to-date.

Is the number accurate? It could simply be a typo, but we probably won't be
able to verify that until next week. Since Barron's online and the print
version are in agreement, I will assume that the numbers are correct. I have
tried to verify it on the NYSE web site, but to no avail, after thirty
frustrating minutes of working with what has to be the most pathetic example
of a financial web site in existence.

The final problem is to decide the significance of such a large number. I
normally interpret these stats in the context of the week in which they
occurred. Since the last three days of the week ended 3/14/2003 were the
first three days of the current rally, I assume that the unusually high net
buying had to do with short covering, which implies that NYSE Members were
not expecting this rally. Very surprising.

Could this be massive accumulation in preparation of a continued rally? We
can't rule this out, but we must also note that the second highest instance
of net buying (+202,697 during the week ending 7/12/2002) took place about
half way down the decline into the July 2002 lows. If this was accumulation,
it was not timed very intelligently. Also, if we look at the chart of
cumulative net buy/sell, we can see that it has an upward bias, and that the
up trend has accelerated during the bear market. This is the opposite of
what we might think would happen, and it makes me wonder just how useful
these numbers are.

I don't know that I have been of any help, but I wanted to let you know
about the chart problem, to advise that I am aware of the high reading, and
to give you my best guess as to what it means.

Have a good weekend.

Carl