Humira - highly likely to be significantly active. That said, the endpoints are complex and I haven't worked through them. Scheduled to complete in the latter half of 2014.
Note that ABBV is testing Humira in two phase-3 uveitis studies that roughly parallel XOMA’s EYEGUARD-A and EYEGUARD-C in active and stable disease, respectively. The primary endpoint in ABBV’s trials is indeed complex, but in both cases vitreous haze is a component of the endpoint (on an absolute basis in the active-disease trial and a relative basis in the stable-disease trial).
Sirolimus intravitreal injections. No idea of possible chance of success. Scheduled to complete trials in late 2014.
In Santen’s phase-3 everolimus trial, the primary endpoint is identical to XOMA’s (proportion of patients with a 2-step reduction in vitreous haze), although this isn’t clear from the description at clinicaltrials.gov.
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated in any area of human knowledge!”