century - they are burning through cash at the rate of $50M+ a quarter and delivered $2M in revenue the first quarter it was available and they just announced a revenue miss again for 2nd quarter delivering $4M. So lets do the math here - two quarters of expenses @ $103M+ and revenue of $6M for the same periods. They also just did a $110M loan/line of credit based on 'royalties' - how is that going to work with this kind of revenue generation. That loan would last them roughly 6 months at the rate they are going. There are still REMS attached and they cannot advertise. They have NO partner with milestone payments on the horizon to bail them out. They have had 6 months all by themselves to capture market share and they have failed miserably. All I can think is that this is not going to end well for the big boy investors in VVUS. Eisai will launch Belviq in 30 days and the shelves will be filled prior to that in anticipation of Rx's. IMO you are going to be witnessing some serious manipulation in both stocks in those 30 days as investors will want to flee VVUS and enter ARNA. The MM's will be working overtime to assist their clients on both fronts, as you saw today. I do not believe shorts will capitulate and cover until there are revenue numbers coming from Belviq sales. They are still trying desperately to tie Belviq to VVUS's failure and dampen hopes of a successful launch via articles and talking heads. They always seem to leave out that Belviq is a 'novel' drug, has virtually no side effects, no REMS, has a proven launch partner, and is receiving huge milestone payments for reaching certain benchmarks. They also have no debt and a 4-5 product pipeline in various stages of development.
By the DEA not waiving the 30 day period, requested by Eisai, this essentially gives the shorts and day traders another 20 trading days to manipulate it up and down. I personally feel like there was growing pressure via recent articles questioning the DEA's scheduling timeline. I think they finally caved and said we have held this back for you as long as we could - but we will give you another 30 days to figure out your situation(s) by not waiving Eisai's request. JMO
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