Sector Investing

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Margin debt stories are coming out as I expected. This is a good one:

http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/margin-debt-market-highs-all-time/5/2/2013/id/49596?camp=syndication&medium=portals&from=bloomberg;?%3E

The SOX has broken out finally setting a higher low and higher high. This did not happen prior to the October 2007 high. That's right I said October high. The market does not always sell off in May. It did not in May of 2007. It does not always bottom in October. It hit a top in October 2007:



Finally the Investors Intelligence Poll this week shows rising bulls and falling bear numbers:

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/market_tools/investors_intelligence.aspx

The market is running higher now on the second (by now probably the highest) level of margin buying ever. Volatility is low. It can remain that way for years. But imagine if you will what happens when a large enough shock hits the market to induce a sustained sell off in the market. Margin calls will exacerbate any upcoming sell off. Considering the negative net worth of so many Americans the next stock market low could even be lower than the March 2009 low.

I can't tell you when the market will top next. I can tell you that when the selling begins in earnest if you are using margin you are going to get burnt. I know. This happened to me in 2000.

Do not let it happen to you.

RtS