Biotech Values

[ciotera]

BMY lacked the insight and didn't do the math

The words "unlike HIV" are very important - it not only means that you need to get to as many patients as quickly as you can (before they all become too old to treat or worse yet, die off), but also that you can only get them for 12 weeks (unlike rest of their lives in HIV), and the disease is hardly a death sentence so there is little urgency to treat (unlike HIV), and there isn't a vocal and strong advocacy group that will ensure continuous spotlight and public funding (unlike HIV). There are a lot of things unlike HIV in this category, and both of these HIV/HBV companies tremendously overvalued VRUS (and INHX, but that one is obvious to everyone now). As opposed to ABT or J&J or BI who are taking more cautious smaller gambles (proportional to the available upside in this therapeutic category). Yes, it's quite possible that Sofosbuvir will be the Viread of HCV, but the problem is it will never really be a Viread because HCV is very much unlike HIV.