Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Alex G]

surrender? unfortunately probably not likely... it could get ugly and bloody



...Of the six Republican Guard divisions, three of them, armored and with around 12,000 soldiers each, are firmly entrenched in Baghdad's inner defensive ring. The key elite Medina division is in the south of the city - ready to face the Americans

Behind the Republican Guards there are still four brigades of the Special Republican Guards, with at least 10,000 and as many as 25,000 soldiers either placed inside Baghdad or back in Tikrit, Saddam's birthplace 160 kilometers to the north. They are disposed in four motorized infantry brigades and are very well trained in urban guerrilla.

Saddam can count on the support of a complex network of tribes, clans and sub-clans in the Sunni center of Iraq...

A mix of Republican and Special Republican Guards, civilian and military security, secret police and civilian militias will offer fierce resistance to the Americans. A well as Saddam, the 8,000 men of the Mudiriyah al-Am al-Amma (the secret police) all come from Tikrit: this is largely an extended family affair. Civilian militias - composed of five competing security forces - will be decisive in urban guerrilla warfare. These forces include the 5,000 men of the al-Amn al-Khas (the Special Forces) and the 4,000 men of the al-Mukhabasad al-Amma (intelligence services), which are spread out all over the country.

There are also the 6,000 men from the al-Idakhard al Askkariyya (military intelligence) and the 5,000 men of Amm al-Askariyya (military security) - a secret police that answers directly to the Ministry of Defense and controls the key central district of Baghdad (their headquarters has already been bombed). There are still the 8,000 men of the Mudiriyah al-Am al-Amma, the secret police which directly depends on the Ministry of the Interior (all of these men also come from Tikrit).

Thousands of Arab-Afghan mujahideen have also been deployed around Baghdad and Mosul preparing suicide commando - or "martyrdom" - operations against the invasion, as well as 2,500 Hezbollah from Lebanon. About 700 Algerian volunteers who received weapons training in Iraqi camps are also at hand.

Finally, around this dizzying web, we find what the Americans would call "combatants" - at least 150,000 men and women of the Jaysh al-Shaabi, a civilian militia that even includes elderly Shi'ite women in black brandishing their World War I-era rifles. The task of the militia is basically to corral the civilian population.

All these special and not-so-special forces have been strategically positioned by the regime among civilians. They will thus be deadly in a guerrilla scenario. This would be the ultimate nightmare for the Pentagon, barring the unthinkable - chemical, biological and even nuclear warfare.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/EC27Ak05.html