Tornado Alley (PROG)

[fuagf]

Chechen war expert: 'This is a big deal'

Posted By Thomas E. Ricks Friday, April 19, 2013 - 10:34 AM Share

By Christopher Swift

Best Defense bureau of Chechen affairs

I've done fieldwork on the insurgency in Chechnya and Dagestan and have studied the war there for nearly 15 years. I've also interviewed several very prominent rebels.

This would mark the first time Chechens have attacked any sort of U.S. target. Up until now their focus has been on Russia. This is a big deal. And it shows how the conflict in the Caucasus has metastasized into a kind of globalized jihadist theatre, at least in the minds of the young people fighting there.

These guys likely had no connection to the Caucasus Emirate .. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dokku_Umarov .. [ insert excerpt

" Dokka Umarov [...] Religious beliefs and world view

"Barely religious until late in life", Umarov practices traditional Islam, as opposed to "Wahhabis". There is no real record that indicates he has ever followed or is currently a follower of salafism. He has always described himself as a "traditionalist". Responding to Russian claims that he was an Islamic extremist, he described himself as a "traditionalist" and said: "Before the start of the first war in 1994, when the occupation began and I understood that war was inevitable, I came here as a patriot. I'm not even sure I knew how to pray properly then. It's ridiculous to say I'm a Wahhabist or a radical Muslim." Umarov denied that the Chechen separatism is linked to al-Qaeda or any other international jihadist groups, saying that the rebels' priority is liberty and independence from Russia and peace for the Caucasus. However, in the same 2007 statement in which Umarov proclaimed the Caucasus Emirate, he expressed solidarity with "brothers in Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia and Palestine" and described "everyone who attacked Muslims" as common enemies of Muslims worldwide. His deputy Anzor Astemirov soon retracted this statement, although saying they still held Israel to be an enemy. Prior to the declaration of his emirate, Umarov was commonly viewed as a staunch Chechen nationalist and had been expected by many observers to rather curb the pan-Islamist tendencies in the separatist movement.

In the video in which Doku Umarov claimed responsibility for the Domodedovo International Airport bombing, calling the major powers in the world "Satanic" he criticized the US and Russia for being hyprocrites, in that if they actually followed their own principles, they would have to surrender world power to China, due to the senior status of Chinese culture and religion.He said, according to the logic of Russia and America, "China should then rule the world. They have the largest and most ancient cultures". He also attacked the USA, Russia, Britain, and Israel for oppressing Muslims. "

in person; connection would likely have been online. This looks more and more like "resonant effects," rather than something planned and executed by a cadre-level organization.

Chechens I know are completely crushed. Let's hope the FBI gets to the remaining suspect before the Chechen refugee community in Boston does. Boston welcomed and protected Chechen asylum seekers like no other city. Those people will tear these kids to pieces for the harm they've done.

A midday update:

As I'm learning more and more, it looks like most of these "connections" would have been online rather than through working with a terrorist syndicate out in the field. These kids have been out of Russia for more than a decade. And it looks like they've been living highly compartmentalized lives as well.

Based on these facts, I doubt we have a Faisal Shahzad-style situation.

[ insert: How a U.S. Citizen Came to Be in America’s Cross Hairs
Faisal Shahzad had reached out to Mr. Awlaki on the Internet before his attempt at a car bombing in 2010.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=85541078 ]

The Caucasus Emirate is about two companies in size. Most of these guys are living in tents in the mountains and constantly moving between safe houses. Their reach outside the region is very limited. Even the Kavkaz website is run outside the region.

I've been in that terrain. It's very difficult physicial and sociological ground to traverse, even for a local. So I'd be shocked to see that they were connected directly to the group.

Mid-afternoon update:

It looks like the bomber was in Russia just last year. If this is true, then we may in fact have a Shahzad-type event on our hands. It's still too soon to know whether this is international or a lone-wolf event based on these new facts.

Christopher Swift is an adjunct professor of national security studies at the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and a fellow at the University of Virginia's Center for National Security Law.

Editor's Note: The headline on this post has been changed.

http://ricks.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/04/19/chechnya_s_war_just_arrived_in_the_united_states