PositiveID Corporation (fka PSID)

[kappak]

You're expecting a 320M dollar company off the DHS contract?

As Boeing is the licensee, they will be the ones showing $3B of revenue, not PSID. So yes, even if PSID is the lone entity listed on the contract, between the teaming agreement and the licensee agreement, this is what is going to happen. We are not handling the manufacture, deployment, operation, networking, etc. Just the assays.

I believe PSID, if granted the full contract, is looking at, on the high side, $120M in revenues over 5 years, with ~$20M in income, also over those 5 years.

If you averaged that out, that is $4M in earnings a year, or an EPS of 0.0125 with the current 320M O/S. Keep in mind, the lion share of the realized revenues from the contract will be experience towards the middle to tail end and yes, I am aware this schedule could be accelerated.

Taking that 0.0125 EPS, factor in a multiple (I'm going to pick 20x until they can prove other wise), and that would put it with a SP around $0.22

It would need a 100x multiple to trade at $1.00 pre-split based on these numbers.

if you do the R/S, all things being equal,it would have a SP of $2.20 or so.

Companies with 15% margins typically do not justify a high multiple which I why I am choosing a 20x as opposed to an 80x of 100x. If the company is able to transform their entity to service larger contracts, and not license it off, then this could change over time (e.g. non-North American contracts and other sources of income).

I'm having a hard time justifying $1.00 pre-split without other business coming on line. On the other hand, I recognize this is penny land, and irrational buying can defy logic.

This is not directed to you, but to the board: I'm curious to understand other perspectives base on some method of fundamental, rather than emotional investing.