Good points. I suspect that shorts will reappear at higher prices, just with any stock. The institutions are much more patient than the retail investor. If that constituent of investors increase their stake in VRNG, the volatility will slowly diminish, as will the short interest.
Knowing what I know about GOOG and its leadership, I still see settlement as a wild card, which is actually a silly strategy for GOOG. They have proven their point to all potential patent trolls that they will not just lay down anytime someone hits them with an infringement lawsuit. So settling after JJ rules would pose little risk to the company. I'm in house counsel at a very large global corporation. We are constantly trying to strike a balance between settling lawsuits and trying them. If you settle too many, too soon you invite the bottom feeders with baseless claims; they crawl out of the woodwork. But if you try everything, the risks are significant and could actually rise to the level of materiality that must be disclosed on your financials. Indeed, I would not want to be the GC whose company missed earnings because of a few runaway verdicts.
As for your appeal point, no disrespect, but the next level is automatic. The Federal Circuit Court must accept and hear the appellate arguments. Of course, after that phase, which generally takes only one year from notice of appeal to the Federal Circuit's holding, the Supremes must grant cert. In my strong and qualified opinion, there are no critical federal questions at issue and no circuit conflicts here that would ever result in the Supremes granting cert. So, looking at this from the most conservative perspective, assuming no settlement, this entire process will be over by the fall of 2014. I'm not a trader, but I suspect there will be many trading opportunities along the way, the big risk being out of the stock at the time of a settlement or major ruling.
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