badog:
You can never rule out emotion. But, in general, all stocks and all markets are forward looking. Everybody has known about winter for a long time.
I can't try to anticipate when a stock is going to run for emotional reasons. I religiously sell when that happens and I NEVER buy. All I can do is determine if a stock is in a sector I like, if it has a good balance sheet and if a few other minor issues are acceptable. If it meets that test, I place a future value on it and determine if it is priced right based on that value - and based on the chart. In the case of ASPN, I believe it meets all the tests today.
Having said that, there is still some downside risk. The stock is, after all, up a huge amount in a relatively short period of time. Since the market is forward-looking 6 months, it could figure out that 6 months from now will be spring. And, there is a good chance that NG usage may be declining considerably more than anyone yet realizes through conservation.
This weekend I will have a personal story of conservation to tell. Thank God, the rest of the country is not like me!
Len
Warren Buffet: 5 minutes and 17 seconds of pure, unadulterated, bulletproof, flawless logic.
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