Biotech Values

[terry hallinan]

DewDiligence,

Once again, if you know or think that an interim look with a fat p-value allocation has been missed, it is prudent to sell.

It isn't prudent to buy speculative small cap biotechs in the first place.

I think we have an unusually fat difference of opinion of "fat."

As data matures one would expect it to improve unless it is an antisense trial in which it can be expected to get worse.

Unless you were emotionally attached to the stock, why would you want to play those kinds of odds?

What are the odds?

Certainly the odds got worse with the interim look. I frankly forget the "fat" p value but anything less than .05 is not exactly "fat" as I see it. I think it was not clear how harsh the penalty was. Of necessity the odds get worse with each look that fails but does not tell you how the trial will turn out.

Sure there was a statistical analysis that guesstimated whether the trial would eventually fail. So? Remember it passed on that score.

Best, Terry