R59- UVIH
Re- Seems to me that if they have no more catasrophic events over the next week or so, that the only loss they'll be looking at for the Dec qtr is Wilma. Since last qtr they showed $3.2M in losses from hurricains and this qtr it could be only $1.3, then there could be an additional $1.9M in net income assuming revenues remain constant. Also, you would have to factor in that the revenues from policies being written are increasing close to 100% qtr over qtr lately! So, it seems that in addition to more net income from less losses in the Dec qtr over the Sept qtr, we could have a huge increase in revenues for the Dec qtr over the Sept qtr. Re- this is unreal- I mean, they could show around $.20 for the Dec qtr! A couple things to mention though is that they had loss carryforwards of $9.4M as of Dec 31,2004 and have used approx $3.8M of that so far in 2005- leaving them $5.6M. I feel, if they double earnings for the Dec qtr, then that would use up the rest of their tax loss carryforwards, and they could be paying taxes(34% rate) by the Mar qtr. The other thing to mention is that their reinsurance rates will be going up, but I don't think that'll show till next year( Re- do you know?). Anyway, it seems that even after taxes, they could show close to $.20 in the Mar qtr! OK- so what we have hear is a company that could show $.60 or more in 2006 IMO. Re- the big question for me right now is- what PE should we assign to this type of company? I mean 21st Century (TCHC)is only recieving a 3 PE going forward at present, and they cover catastrphic events in Florida also- but then again UVIH is growing much quicker. Wade
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