Wednesday, March 06, 2013 5:23:59 PM
You disagree that there's a head and shoulders formation on the chart of AAPL, then? It seems to be pretty clear to me that it is...about as text-book perfect as they come as a matter of fact.
There's plenty of evidence out there in the market's history that such a pattern has statistical significance as to future price performance (just like ascending triangles, double bottoms, falling wedges, etc). That's why it has been included as a notable pattern within TA . That's all that I'm saying.
To disagree with that is to throw TA away as a useful measure of the market, IMO.
Now, as to how the fundamentals of a company interplays with the TA, I think the fundamentals are only one small driving force, if you will. The main point of TA is that it measures the psychology of the true driving force - the collective minds of all the individuals that trade the market.
It may not make logical sense that a stock's price continues to drop based on its fundamentals (like here with AAPL), and yet, it may continue to hold that negative momentum well beyond that level. Who knows exactly why...maybe there's so much collective fear within the individuals that selling continues well beyond where it logically should have stopped (ie based on fundamental analysis).
We mustn't forget that humans are very emotionally driven, so it shouldn't come as a surprise that the market often over-reacts (ie becomes too optimistic or pessimistic towards the value of a stock).
That's where price patterns become valuable. They are historical evidence of psychological patterns to various scenarios within the market. They are a visual representation of how the collective market reacts to all the variables (fundamental analysis and technical analysis included, among a million other variables) that it faces at any one time.
There's plenty of evidence out there in the market's history that such a pattern has statistical significance as to future price performance (just like ascending triangles, double bottoms, falling wedges, etc). That's why it has been included as a notable pattern within TA . That's all that I'm saying.
To disagree with that is to throw TA away as a useful measure of the market, IMO.
Now, as to how the fundamentals of a company interplays with the TA, I think the fundamentals are only one small driving force, if you will. The main point of TA is that it measures the psychology of the true driving force - the collective minds of all the individuals that trade the market.
It may not make logical sense that a stock's price continues to drop based on its fundamentals (like here with AAPL), and yet, it may continue to hold that negative momentum well beyond that level. Who knows exactly why...maybe there's so much collective fear within the individuals that selling continues well beyond where it logically should have stopped (ie based on fundamental analysis).
We mustn't forget that humans are very emotionally driven, so it shouldn't come as a surprise that the market often over-reacts (ie becomes too optimistic or pessimistic towards the value of a stock).
That's where price patterns become valuable. They are historical evidence of psychological patterns to various scenarios within the market. They are a visual representation of how the collective market reacts to all the variables (fundamental analysis and technical analysis included, among a million other variables) that it faces at any one time.
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