Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[DrRocker]

Two important discussions/threads going on yesterday and this morning with big implications for our short and near term future;
1.-Reasons for last week's meetings in NYC and Boston-
Optimistic reason would be meetings were with II looking to get in before good news on front line lung, FDA phase 3 meeting, and/or partnering. Pessimistic reason would be they were meeting to prepare a PIPE or some other dilutive financing because no good news was forthcoming anytime soon. I can't help but lean towards the latter explanation given historical reality. Hopium I am wrong here and could easily be.
2.-Projections for Front Line Lung MOS results-
If Mojo's projection of 17-18 months MOS proves prescient we are off to the races and will not look back IMO having trounced Avastin's numbers with a much better safety profile. The countervailing view is that the recent pancreatic results of only 5.6 months MOS 8 months after the last patient was enrolled show how difficult is it to predict these things with any accuracy and we could be setting ourselves up for another disappointment. My thoughts here lean toward the former view as I have to believe that the company delaying the time frame for announcing these results bodes well. As they have yet to announce the control arm MOS I do wonder/worry about the control arm results being close to the treatment arm though this level of abberation from previous control arm results in front line lung would seem to be larger and less likely than the original abberation was.
The challenge (for me) with my two views presented is that they contradict each other to some degree. My general hopium outlook would give the tie-breaker to the optimistic view as I cannot help but think if the front line lung results blow away Avastin a big money partnership (if not outright buyout) would not be far behind.
Rocker