AI
Saturday, November 12, 2005 1:12:28 PM
so how about this question then, what exactly does your daily sell mean? On nov 2nd you had a daily sell signal on the comp, it actually went off a few more times in the following days as well...but you can see from the comp chart below it just kept going up. And then you had a "bizarro buy" on nov 9th, a week after your daily sells, so you said we could keep going up...but that was after you had posted daily sells and the comp had gone up another 40 points. And on the ndx on oct 28th you said quote "trend change on the Ndx from up to down is intact and like I said this morning ....they can dress this pig up anyway they want for the next few days (in light of the seasonally strong period) but the trend on the Ndx and Naz has changed from up to down and the top is in in my mind and we will be going to Ndx 1500 soon enough." Oct 28th was the low that led to this rally we've had since as you can see in the ndx chart below. It just seems like if you post a daily sell signal and the market drops you nailed it, and if instead it rises that turns into a buy, and again you nailed it. Why is it that after you say what I quoted above and the market goes into major rally mode, you don't come out and post something like...
On Oct 28th I said "the top is in in my mind and we will be going to Ndx 1500 soon enough."
No Bingo, didn't nail it.
But yet you always do find a way to say that you nailed it, or "bingo", or "who da man" one way or another. I've seen dozens of posts of yours that say bingo or something to that affect, but never once seen one that said man I was wrong about that. I think LG's is a valid question for all of you guys that like to make the daily calls on the markets...it seems to most of us that don't bother with the day to day stuff that at best it's 50%, but for some reason all the daytraders want that pat on the back no matter what it takes to get it...so in many cases that's turned into people having so many open scenarios at once, that no matter what happens they always have the outcome covered and love to tell everyone how well they're calling the markets. The posts of yours I've pasted here are a perfect example, you were obviously bearish or saying sell when really it was a time to buy, but I'll bet you can point out posts of yours within a few days of those that said you had buys. So pretty much if the market had dropped like you originally thought, you'd have had it nailed, but then because you're posting buys just days after, you have that nailed too if we continue to rise. LG has a perfectly legitimate question about why you only reference the correct calls in your future posts and say that you nailed the call, whereas you never reference an incorrect call and say you blew that one. You don't have to be defensive about it and think it'll become a problem on the board, you could just answer the question honestly in a single post...it could be because you only want people to see the portion of the calls you got right, or it could be you think there's no point in referencing the incorrect calls because of the simple fact they were wrong and they're no longer valid, or it could be something else...but there is a reason. Maybe if you just stopped all the "who da man" and "bingo" stuff and just posted your day to day take like the rest of them it would come across a little better...that's the only reason your posts stand out...every time I read a "bingo" I think wait a minute, wasn't he saying the exact opposite just days ago, and sure enough I look back and there it is, just like the past couple weeks.
Posted by: Justa Werkenstiff
In reply to: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote msg# 63424
Date:11/2/2005 4:14:09 PM
Post #of 64524
On the close daily sells on the Naz and Rut. Limited upside ST on SPX but no sell quite yet. No sell on Ndx but one should use Naz as proxy for Ndx as it is carrying baggage.
Posted by: Justa Werkenstiff
In reply to: chainik who wrote msg# 63061
Date:10/28/2005 3:56:41 PM
Post #of 64524
C: I mentioned a few days ago that this period was a time of seasonal strength and to the rally is no surprise to me. It was this period potential that caused me to put off a better bottom from this timeframe out into the future before the rally even happened.
Note what has happened though. Spx and Dow have party fever while the Ndx and the Naz are being left behind this round by virtue of the Sox for one. In my mind, trend change on the Ndx from up to down is intact and like I said this morning ....they can dress this pig up anyway they want for the next few days (in light of the seasonally strong period) but the trend on the Ndx and Naz has changed from up to down and the top is in in my mind and we will be going to Ndx 1500 soon enough. If this is correct, I don't expect the Spx and Dow will run away to the upside. Moreover, my weekly buys never lined up for these averages and I think they will eventually.
On Oct 28th I said "the top is in in my mind and we will be going to Ndx 1500 soon enough."
No Bingo, didn't nail it.
But yet you always do find a way to say that you nailed it, or "bingo", or "who da man" one way or another. I've seen dozens of posts of yours that say bingo or something to that affect, but never once seen one that said man I was wrong about that. I think LG's is a valid question for all of you guys that like to make the daily calls on the markets...it seems to most of us that don't bother with the day to day stuff that at best it's 50%, but for some reason all the daytraders want that pat on the back no matter what it takes to get it...so in many cases that's turned into people having so many open scenarios at once, that no matter what happens they always have the outcome covered and love to tell everyone how well they're calling the markets. The posts of yours I've pasted here are a perfect example, you were obviously bearish or saying sell when really it was a time to buy, but I'll bet you can point out posts of yours within a few days of those that said you had buys. So pretty much if the market had dropped like you originally thought, you'd have had it nailed, but then because you're posting buys just days after, you have that nailed too if we continue to rise. LG has a perfectly legitimate question about why you only reference the correct calls in your future posts and say that you nailed the call, whereas you never reference an incorrect call and say you blew that one. You don't have to be defensive about it and think it'll become a problem on the board, you could just answer the question honestly in a single post...it could be because you only want people to see the portion of the calls you got right, or it could be you think there's no point in referencing the incorrect calls because of the simple fact they were wrong and they're no longer valid, or it could be something else...but there is a reason. Maybe if you just stopped all the "who da man" and "bingo" stuff and just posted your day to day take like the rest of them it would come across a little better...that's the only reason your posts stand out...every time I read a "bingo" I think wait a minute, wasn't he saying the exact opposite just days ago, and sure enough I look back and there it is, just like the past couple weeks.
Posted by: Justa Werkenstiff
In reply to: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote msg# 63424
Date:11/2/2005 4:14:09 PM
Post #of 64524
On the close daily sells on the Naz and Rut. Limited upside ST on SPX but no sell quite yet. No sell on Ndx but one should use Naz as proxy for Ndx as it is carrying baggage.
Posted by: Justa Werkenstiff
In reply to: chainik who wrote msg# 63061
Date:10/28/2005 3:56:41 PM
Post #of 64524
C: I mentioned a few days ago that this period was a time of seasonal strength and to the rally is no surprise to me. It was this period potential that caused me to put off a better bottom from this timeframe out into the future before the rally even happened.
Note what has happened though. Spx and Dow have party fever while the Ndx and the Naz are being left behind this round by virtue of the Sox for one. In my mind, trend change on the Ndx from up to down is intact and like I said this morning ....they can dress this pig up anyway they want for the next few days (in light of the seasonally strong period) but the trend on the Ndx and Naz has changed from up to down and the top is in in my mind and we will be going to Ndx 1500 soon enough. If this is correct, I don't expect the Spx and Dow will run away to the upside. Moreover, my weekly buys never lined up for these averages and I think they will eventually.
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