The Black Box

[wahz]

I want to make something as clear as I can: this seems to me to be the biggest moment of truth yet. It's a bit remarkable what the daily and weekly charts say at this moment going into the war. If I had to lay odds on whether we break through UP, or Down, I would have to say that we would turn down on the daily, but by the end of the week be up on the daily, and neutral to up on the weekly, and then move up from there.

What are the odds? This has been such a brutal bear that it should not be underestimated. techninically, I would say the chances are 75% that we go up, BUT because of the odd behavior at crtical junctures the past three years, I would reduce this way down to 60%. So I am leaning hard that we go up, but you and I need to have an escape plan. this could really swing wildly the first few days and you want to avoid whipsaws. part of my plan right now is to lean long and NOT switch back to short if it looks like we are turning down, but go neutral.