ETF SWING & DAY TRADING

[husk]

Thanks, everyone for the welcome back...I was really only going to post the one comment..but I will have to respond to some..maybe tomorrow...

So the Borg is a bad coaster, eh?? I may have limits but the only one I've turned down so far is the one on top of the space needle in Vegas...and I didn't want to go by myself and the wife absolutely refused.....the Borg...hmmmmmmm. Sounds like a nice park..maybe I can find a reason to visit there.

Relative to the market...I am 50% short..50% cash. I have been watching the 1630 NDX resistance get hammered again and again over the past 3 days..some 14 times I think it has crossed upward across 1630 and not been able to hold that level on a closing basis. When/If it does close above that level, I am going to switch bias to long...but until then, it looks like a market in equilibrium..with a great battle being fought between bears and bulls right here..so far, neither side has prevailed.

I think the risk/reward probably favors the bullish side..if we drop, it probably won't be much...and there is plenty of room to run to the upside before the next heavy resistance..

At the risk of sounding simplistic, while many are discussing the ADX, and DMI's.....it's been explained here, but I'm not sure if everyone understands, that the ADX only shows the STRENGTH of the trend, not whether it is a positive trend or a negative trend.

Maybe I just don't appreciate the nuances of the ADX system...but a 4 or 5 day moving average of the price will tell you which direction is the trend, and also tell you the strength of the trend, better than the ADX in my simple opinion.

If an investor wanted to use a trend-following system, he could do worse than simply staying on the up or down side that a 4/5ma of price is pointing....add in some candle-reversal signals, when you see a high probability one (engulfing, morning/evening stars, abandonded babies, etc.) throw in some momentum indicators (rsi, cci, trix, stoch, macd, etc.)...and one could have a fairly robust system..I think.

ciao