MDA - Market Direction Analysis

[augieboo]

I went long because:

[1] My intra-day charts were all oversold, from 240 minutes down to 5, while the dailies were close enough to oversold to allow for at least a small rally.

[2] We closed at or near the highs on good volume (relative to the previous few weeks) on Wed. This indicated there was some momentum building.

[3] Next week is OPEX. Since we haven't been in a strong trend, and there are a lot of options right around max pain for the indices, we should move toward max pain this week and touch it at least once next week.

All-in-all I figured that at worst I would be 1/2 to a day early. Note that it is EXTREMELY rare for me to have this much confidence in a "read" ahead of time. The real kicker was the fact that my intraday models all lined up. I know from a little bit of experience but mostly from LG, (who taught me his Multiple Time Frame Analysis technique) that when they all line up that way a change in trend is very likely.

To tell the truth I didn't even see the broken daily trend until you pointed it out to me. {sheepish grin}