Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[pstuartb]

Zeev –

I understand your call of under 1260 next week, but I’m having trouble with the reasoning. Last month’s expiration rally looked a lot like this one, so why do you think we will not get pinned at about qqq 25 again this month?

We have an equity p/c ratio of about .68 today, .72 yesterday. During the 2 day ramp last month, it was also about .7. Going into expiration week last month, we only had about 150k puts at 25 and about 120k puts at 24. This month we have about 210k puts at 25 and about 189k puts at 24. We do have fewer new highs now, and a greater number of new lows than during the ramp last month. I’m not sold on this rally either, I agree the internals are weak, but unless some serious news moves this market one way or the other, I’m wondering whether we might get pinned near qqq 25 during expiration week like we did last month. Why do you see us dropping to about qqq 23 next week? TIA