Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

>Doing my DD on GPCB. Just one question: is my computer broken, or did it really not trade at all today? Why? If anyone holds GPCB, does this bother you at all?<

Your computer is not broken—almost all of the GPCB trading is in Frankfurt. The Nasdaq bid-ask basically tracks the Frankfurt close, which occurs early in Nasdaq trading day. It may seem weird, but NVS traded like on the pinks when I first bought it more than five years ago.

To assure a fair price, get the Frankfurt close, apply the currency conversion, and don’t pay more than a token premium above that to buy on Nasdaq.

By the way, I don’t own GPCB yet, but I’m watching it and plan to buy eventually. I don’t expect them to have any huge market-moving events until the interim PFS look in 1Q06, which will likely fail because they have allocated very little p-value to this data look.

That reminds me… GPCB has changed the surrogate endpoint for accelerated approval from TTP to PFS, which the FDA prefers (see bottom of #msg-8358161), so I need to update our clinical-trial calendar accordingly.