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Tuesday, November 01, 2005 8:54:33 PM
From Briefing.com: 4:16PM Asyst $0.05 better than consensus, ex-items; guides Q3 EPS above consensus (ASYT) :Reports Q2 (Sep) earnings of $0.02 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.05 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of ($0.03); revenues fell 26.1% year/year to $124.6 mln vs the $110.6 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q3, sees EPS of $0.03-0.06 vs. $0.01 consensus.
4:15PM Intl Rectifier announces $100 mln buyback (IRF) 29.18 -0.41:
4:08PM Solectron announces new $250 mln buyback (SLR) 3.56 +0.03:
4:07PM Kopin beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs slightly below consensus (KOPN) 5.46 -0.19:Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.08 per share, $0.06 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.02; revenues rose 10.9% year/year to $25.4 mln vs the $24.1 mln consensus. Co issues downside guidance for Q4, sees Q4 revs of $23-25 mln vs. $25.42 mln consensus.
Close Dow -33.30 at 10406.77, S&P -4.25 at 1202.76, Nasdaq -6.25 at 2114.05: The market failed to extend its biggest two-day rally in almost a year, as disappointing Dell (DELL 29.24 -2.64) guidance and another Fed rate hike prompted modest consolidation efforts. Setting the negative tone in pre-market trading was a warning from Dell, which said after the close Monday it will miss Q3 (Oct) earnings and sales forecasts due to weakness in its U.S. consumer business and U.K. operations. Further underpinning a sense of caution throughout the session was anticipation of a 12th consecutive 25-basis point increase in the fed funds rate to 4.0%. At 2:15 ET, the FOMC did just that and, if not for any other reason except to distract investors from Dell shares trading near their worst levels since May 2003, strangely provided a spark of buying interest that lifted the Dow into positive territory. However, the knee-jerk reaction was short-lived as committee members barely altered the previous meeting's policy directive and, based on the potential of a "cumulative rise in energy and other costs" adding to inflation pressures, said they will continue to raise rates at a "measured" pace, pushing stocks back below the flat line for good. With regard to sector strength and weakness, Utilities paced the day's losses. Third-quarter earnings disappointments from Ameren (AEE 51.64 -0.96), PPL Corp (PPL 30.78 -0.56) and TXU Corp (TXU 90.44 -10.31) as well as weakness in the Treasury market prompted investors to lock in some of the sector's respectable 12.6% year-to-date gain. Bonds were under pressure all day, first selling off after the Oct ISM Index's prices paid component, which rose to its the highest level (84.0) since May 2004, raised inflation fears. Failure to change the policy's language, suggesting more rate hikes are forthcoming, sent bond buyers to the sidelines, as the 10-yr note closed down 4 ticks to yield 4.56%. Also affected by rising bond yields was the interest-rate sensitive Financial sector. Weakness in REITS and insurance following respective quarterly disappointments from Equity Office Properties (EOP 29.00 -1.80) and Marsh & Mclennan (MMC 28.50 -0.65) weighed most heavily on the sector. Consumer Staples was in focus amid encouraging quarterly results from Procter & Gamble (PG 55.85 -0.14) and Colgate-Palmolive (CL 52.45 -0.51), but continued deterioration in the shares prices of both erased early gains. Technology was another influential leader to close lower, as Dell's discouraging pre-announcement crushed Intel (INTC 22.65 -0.85), which derived 19% of its 2004 revenue through sales to Dell. Minimizing sector losses, however, has been strength in Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 28.28 +0.24), which climbed after JP Morgan said it expects HPQ to exceed current Wall Street forecasts when it reports Q4 results on Nov 17. A 13% surge in Computer Sciences (CSC 58.00 +6.75), amid reports that Lockheed Martin (LMT 59.95 -0.61) and three private-equity firms may acquire CSC for about $12 bln, also helped lessen Dell's blow. Despite upbeat closing arguments in the latest Vioxx trial lifting shares of Merck (MRK 28.52 +0.30) and a solid Q3 report from Allergan (AGN 95.23 +5.93), Health Care also closed lower. Reports that the FTC could approve Johnson & Johnson's (JNJ 61.90 -0.72) $25.4 bln acquisition of Guidant (GDT 63.10 +0.10), a deal which has yet to be renegotiated, and downside FY06 guidance from MedcoHealth Solutions (MHS 49.80 -6.70) as well as weakness in health care services, drug and biotech, weighed on the sector. Energy, however, finished higher, benefiting from a rebound in crude oil, which fell below $60/bbl for the first time in three months a day earlier, and better than expected Q3 earnings from Rowan Companies (RDC 34.10 +1.11). BJ Services (BJS 34.60 -0.15), a Briefing.com suggested holding for active investors, beat analysts' Q4 expectations by a penny; but lighter than expected revenues provided investors with an ample opportunity to lock in some of the stock's near 50% year-to-date surge. The Materials sector also posted a modest gain, amid strength in steel, aluminum and chemicals, while reports that Viacom (VIA.B 31.55 +0.58) swung to a profit in Q3 and a 1.7% surge in eBay (EBAY 40.27 +0.66) helped the Consumer Discretionary eke out a small advance. Auto makers were also in focus following October auto sales figures. General Motors (GM 27.19 -0.21), which also saw its rating cut deeper into junk territory at Moody's Investors Service, reported a 23% decline in Oct. US sales -23% (Briefing.com consensus -20.6%) while Ford Motor (F 8.22 -0.10) reported a 26% decline in Oct. U.S. sales (Briefing.com consensus -22.3%). Separately, September construction spending rose the expected 0.5%; however, the volatile report was basically overshadowed by the more influential ISM figures data.DJTA +0.6, DJUA -2.6, DOT +0.5, Nasdaq 100 -0.2, Russell 2000 +0.6, SOX -1.0, XOI +0.3, NYSE Adv/Dec 1532/1752, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1242/1769
3:09PM Tenet Healthcare (THC)
8.22 -0.20: Amid mounting operational challenges, Tenet Healthcare on Tuesday reported a wider-than-expected third quarter loss, due in part to the devastating impact of Hurricane Katrina on the company's six Gulf Coast hospitals. In addition, the hospital operator said, as a result of the recent hurricane activity and continuing soft patient volumes, it will likely fall short of its financial objectives for fiscal 2005.
During the latest quarter, Tenet lost $408 million, or ($0.87) per share, compared with a loss of $70 million, or ($0.15) per share, in the same period last year. Losses from continuing operations were $385 million, or ($0.82) per share. The results included charges totaling $308 million, or $0.66 per share, which includes $0.32 per share associated with the impact of Hurricane Katrina. Apart from these items, the Dallas, TX-based company posted a loss from continuing operations of $77 million, or ($0.16) per share - well below analysts' target of a loss of ($0.05) per share.
Revenue fell 1.7% year/year to $2.39 billion versus the consensus estimate of $2.40 billion. Revenue at hospitals owned at least a year declined 0.3%, as same-hospital admissions, excluding the six hospitals impacted by Hurricane Katrina, slipped 1.4%.
Tenet said its compact-adjusted bad debt ratio increased to 15.1% in the latest period, which includes approximately 2% related to systems conversions, system outages, and the hurricane's adverse effect on cash collections. "While there were a number of both favorable and adverse impacts on the results for the quarter, this bad debt issue was the primary reason we missed the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter," noted Robert Shapard, Tenet's Chief Financial Officer.
Undoubtedly, Hurricane Katrina has dealt a severe blow to Tenet's operations, exacerbating the company's broad range of operational challenges. Aside from the devastation of Katrina, which shuttered several hospitals and killed dozens of its patients, Tenet has struggled to control costs and to raise prices in recent years. Accordingly, disputes with insurers over price increases hindered volume growth and led to the decline in hospital admissions. Even as the company nurses its wounds, the disruption caused by Katrina, along with continuing poor operating performance, does not support an investment in the troubled company.
--Richard Jahnke, Briefing.com
1:39PM TXU Corp. (TXU)
90.95 -9.80: TXU Corp., the nation's sixth largest electricity retailer, reported higher third quarter earnings, but missed Wall Street's expectations. In spite of volatile commodity prices and challenging retail markets, the Dallas, Texas-based company - which is in the midst of restructuring its operations - posted net income of $565 million, or $2.31 per share, compared with $665 million, or $1.34 per share, in the year-ago period. Excluding special items and discontinued operations, earnings from operations were $574 million, or $2.35 per share versus $388 million, or $1.32 per share, last year - $0.11 below the consensus EPS estimate of $2.46. Revenue rose 16.3% from a year ago to $3.19 billion.
TXU said earnings at its energy holdings segment increased 50% from last year to $461 million, while earnings at its electric delivery unit rose 35% to $146 million. TXU attributed the strong growth in operating earnings to ongoing improvements in contribution margins - total revenue less variable costs -and lower operating costs in its core businesses, reflecting the success of its restructuring efforts. The company's restructuring program announced last year includes the disposition of non-core businesses, increased investments in customer service and reliability, and a broad-based operational improvement program.
As a result of the successful execution of its ongoing restructuring initiatives, as well as higher wholesale market prices, TXU increased its outlook for operating earnings by $0.25 to $6.50 to $6.70 per share. This compares with the consensus view of $6.58 per share, according to Reuters Estimates.
Given the lower than expected results, shares of TXU have dropped as much as 12% during the regular trading session. At the same time, however, shares are up about 47% since the beginning of the year. With demand for electricity expected to be strong and natural gas prices remaining high, coupled with ongoing operational improvements, TXU is poised to continue its upward momentum. TXU shares are currently trading at about 9.4x forward earnings.
--Richard Jahnke, Briefing.com
1:28PM Rowan Cos. (RDC)
33.42 +0.43: During the last drilling cycle, utilization rates were 98%. Rowan, an offshore driller heavily-tied to the Gulf of Mexico, experienced rig utilization of 97% for the quarter that ended on September 30th. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita tightened the noose on an already tight market, as they wiped out several rigs in their wake. Rowan lost 4 jack-up rigs, the Odessa, the Halifax, and the Ft. Worth. The Louisiana actually had its hull torn away from its legs, demonstrating the pure power of these storms. Rowan reported an $8.9 mln loss related to these events. It lost 58 rig operating days and $4 mln in drilling revenues. Excluding one-time items, earnings were $0.49 - seven cents above consensus.
Despite the hurricanes, drilling revenues rose 19% sequentially to $217 mln. Drilling margins widened materially in just one quarter to 54%. In order to determine the earnings power of a driller, one needs to look at permitting trends and day rates. Permitting levels continue to rise, providing an indicator of future drilling demand. Rowan's average Gulf of Mexico day rates hit a record $74,400 per day - an increase of 12% from the second quarter and a whopping 60% hike over the past year. Its land rig utilization was 89% - a rise of five points from last year. The average land rig day rate was $18,800, up 10% quarter/quarter and 52% year/year.
Rowan's average offshore day rate worldwide is currently $100,000, which is 20% higher than rates in Q3. Rowan anticipates that even with the loss of revenues from five rigs and the sale of two others, December revenues will be higher than they were in mid-August when these rigs were still counted in its fleet. It feels the "upward pressure in day rates will continue."
The near-term outlook remains favorable for the entire industry. We favor the deepwater segment, which is mobilized by rising day rates and both near and long-term visibility. This is why we continue to recommend Transocean as a holding for active investors. RIG owns the largest and most complete fleet of mobile offshore rigs, operating in virtually every region and every rig type around the world. It operates the premier fleet of deepwater assets, owning 13 of the world's 26 fifth generation rigs. The Houston-based company enjoys significant operating leverage with earnings expected to outpace revenue growth over the next couple years. The market has yet to fully realize RIG's earnings potential and financial flexibility. With a significant cash position, the company can pursue a bevy of growth strategies, both organic and through M&A, along with returning value to shareholders through continued share repurchases.
--Kimberly DuBord, Briefing.com
11:50AM Sirius Satellite (SIRI)
6.45 +0.22: Despite strong revenue and subscriber growth, Sirius Satellite Radio posted a larger third quarter loss due largely to high programming and marketing costs. Sirius' loss widened to $180.4 million, or ($0.14) per share, compared with $169.4 million, or ($0.14) per share, in the same period last year. Analysts, however, were expecting a loss of ($0.16) per share, according to Reuters Estimates.
Revenue for the latest quarter surged to $66.8 million, representing a 250% increase over the $19.1 million reported a year earlier. Sirius added 359,294 subscribers - nearly double last year's 181,948 net additions - bringing its subscriber base to approximately 2.17 million. The company, which boasts more than 120 channels of digital content, said average monthly churn - the percentage of customers to discontinue their subscription - for the third quarter was 1.8% versus 1.5% last year. It added that the churn rate is expected to be about 1.5% for the full year.
Notwithstanding the strong top-line growth and net subscribers, higher operating costs continue to weigh on results as the company continued to spend heavily on content and marketing, as well as customer service. Programming and content expenses increased 25.7% from a year ago to $23.5 million, primarily due to new content agreements and programming expansion. Customer service and billing expenses rose more than 77% to 9.4 million to accommodate a larger customer base, while sales and marketing expenses fell to $38.2 million from $42.6 million last year. Importantly, Sirius said subscriber acquisition costs per gross subscriber addition improved to $149 from $229 a year earlier, and continues to project SAC of under $145 for the full year.
The company raised its full-year subscriber guidance to more than 3 million, but maintained its forecast of a loss from operations of approximately ($540) million on revenue of $230 million. According to Reuters Estimates, analysts, on average, were projecting a pro forma loss of $793.7 million, or ($0.63) per share, on revenue of $234.32 million.
Like its rival XM Satellite Radio (XMSR), Sirius continues to incur large losses as it aggressively invests in operations and adds exclusive programming, such as the NFL, Martha Stewart Living Radio, and Howard Stern. However, with increased traction in automotive OEM distribution channels, along with the addition of new 3G products and promotions for the holiday season, the company is well positioned to drive subscriber growth in the coming months. Furthermore, the addition of Howard Stern in January 2006 should enhance advertising revenue for the company.
--Richard Jahnke, Briefing.com
10:42AM Procter & Gamble (PG)
56.04 +0.05: Even with the rising tides of the hurricanes, energy, and commodity prices, Procter & Gamble produced 4% profit growth in its fiscal first quarter. Able to pass through higher raw material costs, the maker of Pampers, Tide and Pringles brands reported net income of $2.03 bln, or $0.77 per share, compared to $1.94 bln and $0.70 per share a year earlier. Sales grew 8% to $14.79 bln on unit volume growth of 6%. Organic growth, which strips out the effects of mergers and acquisitions, rose an impressive 7%.
This was a solid start to P&G's fiscal year as it proved what a consumer staples company is able to achieve by offering a compelling, market leading portfolio of products. The company said it remains on target with its strategy of a balanced business and geographic breadth "to deliver consistent, reliable net sales and earnings" in good times and in bad. That isn't a wedding vow. Rather, it's the mantra of a consumer products company, whose defensive characteristics are appealing to investors looking for low risk and yield. P&G has both, offering a a beta of 0.54 and a dividend yield of 1.99%.
Looking to its fiscal second quarter, P&G expects earnings of $0.66-0.69 per share, which includes two cents in stock-based compensation expense and $0.09-0.12 in Gillette dilution. For FY06, it sees EPS of $2.54-2.60 including "one time items."
The first quarter was healthy by all accounts with strength in beauty, fabric and home care, and health care. Higher raw material costs more than outpaced the better mix and pricing in the Baby and Family Care unit. The Snacks and Coffee unit was severely impacted by Katrina. Volumes and sales dropped 7% and 5%, respectively. Higher bean costs raised coffee prices, which in turn added 5% to sales. By segment total, sales were as follows: Beauty $4.9 bln (+7%), Family Health $5.1 bln (+8%), and Household Care $4.2 bln (+8%). Cost containment was notable given the headwinds. Cost of goods sold grew 8%, with margins contracting only 20 basis points to 51.6%.
--Kimberly DuBord, Briefing.com
10:07AM Colgate-Palmolive (CL)
53.18 +0.22: Colgate-Palmolive Co. on Tuesday reported higher third quarter profits as ongoing cost-saving initiatives largely offset higher costs for raw materials, as well as increases in oil prices. For its third quarter, the New York-based consumer goods company earned $369.7 million, or $0.67 per share - in line with the consensus estimate - aided by strong sales and unit volume growth. Last year, Colgate reported earnings of $329.0 million, or $0.58 per share.
Worldwide sales climbed 8.0% to an all-time record level of $2.91 billion, reflecting unit volume growth of 5.0%. Positive foreign exchange contributed 2.0% and prices increased 1.0% during the period. The company, whose brands include Softsoap, Speed Stick, and its namesake toothpaste, said North American sales increased 5.0% with unit volume rising 3.5%. North American operating profit increased 2%, despite higher advertising spending, as well as higher transportation and raw material costs. International sales, which account for roughly two-thirds of total revenue, were also strong during the latest quarter with Latin America sales up 18.0% on 5.5% volume growth and European sales up 2.5% on 4.5% volume growth.
Colgate continues to build market share and improve margins as it remains fixated on cost controls and focused business strategies. Consistent with its previously announced restructuring program, from which it expects to save $250 to $300 million annually by 2008, the company said gross margin increased 30 basis points from a year ago to 54.2%, while operating profit increased 12% to 20.8%. The company's shift to advertising spending from promotional spending, combined with improving pricing trends, helped offset rising energy and material costs. For the latest quarter, advertising spending to support Colgate's brands was $327.9 million, with every operating division increasing spending on advertising.
As a result of the strong revenue momentum evidenced in the third quarter, along with ongoing cost-saving initiatives, Colgate said it expects to achieve high single-digit EPS growth this year and plans to return to double digit EPS growth in 2006, excluding restructuring charges.
Colgate's lower exposure to rising oil and material costs, combined with the company's ongoing efforts to reduce costs and focus on developing new products and increased advertising spending, supports continued strong top and bottom line growth. That, along with the company's attractive dividend yield of 2.2%, presents a favorable total return proposition. At the current price level, Colgate trades at approximately 18.1x forward earnings, compared with 19.0x for Procter & Gamble (PG), the world's largest consumer goods company.
--Richard Jahnke, Briefing.com
9:59AM Viacom (VIA)
31.55 +0.50: Aliens on board with higher advertising sales invaded Viacom's third quarter as profits at the entertainment company jumped almost 2%. Profit from continuing operations rose to $735 mln, or $0.47 per share, up from $721.7 mln or $0.42 per share last year. This was a strong showing from Viacom in a quarter that is seasonally its weakest due to ramping production costs ahead of the fall television season. Excluding non-recurring items, earnings of $0.47 per share topped estimates by two cents.
'Tis the season to own media stocks. The group, historically, has performed well throughout the fourth and first quarters. We continue to like Viacom with its impending split-up to occur now by year end and accelerating advertising rates. The new investor-targeted capital structures will unlock the value that resides within (sounds like a horror movie), allowing investors to choose between value (CBS Corp) and growth ("new" Viacom). We also would recommend investors take a second look at Disney (DIS), which we continue to like due to its discounted valuation and growth prospects. The stock is heading into a seasonally strong period driven by its Cable and Broadcasting units. The hurricanes will impact the Parks as expected, but the Studio Entertainment unit could see a resurgence with key releases of Chicken Little and Chronicles of Narnia hitting theaters.
Viacom generated revenue growth of 10% to $5.9 bln in the third quarter, surpassing consensus by almost 2%. What was impressive was that Viacom was able to achieve 5% growth excluding the Entertainment unit. Cable Network revenues grew 15% to $1.7 bln, driven by a 17% jump in advertising revenues. The resurgence in ad growth was broad-based across all channels from MTV to BET. Ancillary revenues, which account for 11% of Cable sales, grew 20% due to higher licensing and syndication fees for Comedy Central and MTV Intl. Operating income rose 11% to $682 mln, although margins slipped 2 points to 41% due to increased programming investment. The Television segment suffered a 2% slip in sales to $2.2 bln, as a mid-single digit rise in advertising growth could not offset lower license revenues. Ad growth came mostly from its CBS/UPN Networks. The licensing decline was caused by fewer titles available for syndication versus the prior quarter. Operating income fell 19% to $376 mln with margins at 17%, down from 21% last year.
The Entertainment unit, which includes Paramount Pictures and Famous Music Publishing, saw revenues soar 54% to $845 mln. The performance was headlined by alien invaders from the movie, War of the Worlds, and the release of Four Brothers and the Bad News Bears. Even DVD sales were higher on contributors from The Longest Yard and Sahara. Operating income grew to $110 mln from $5 mln in the prior year. Its smaller segments, including Radio, Outdoor and Parks & Publishing, all generated low-single digit revenue growth, except Parks, which fell 1%.
--Kimberly DuBord, Briefing.com
8:35AM Dell, Inc. (DELL)
30.51 -1.37: Acknowledging its consumer businesses in the U.S. and U.K. fell short of expectations, Dell now expects fiscal third quarter revenues to be approximately $13.9 billion and its earnings, on a non-GAAP basis, to be $0.39 per share. Following the company's disappointing guidance in August, which sent its stock into a tailspin, consensus estimates had been revised to $0.40 and $14.3 billion. Dell also said it will take a charge of approximately $450 million, or $0.14 per share, in the fiscal third quarter that will yield expected GAAP earnings of $0.25 per share.
The Q3 revision is a disconcerting piece of news that will cause some short-term weakness in the stock. By the same token, though, it is an opportunistic shortcoming for the investment-minded individual who will have the chance to purchase DELL at one of its most reasonable prices in some time.
Anyone who has taken a look at Dell's stock chart recently might be inclined to think Dell's tempered guidance isn't that much of a surprise. To wit, shares of DELL are down 19% since the company reported its Q2 results and down 10% since the start of September. Its revised guidance translates to year/year EPS growth of 21.0% and revenue growth of 11.0%. That's decent growth for most companies, but for a company like Dell that has made a habit out of raising the market's expectations bar, the realization that prior growth expectations will not be met still carries some shock value.
As to be expected, DELL traded down in the after hours session and related companies like Intel (INTC) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) followed suit. For the time being, investors can expect Dell to be fighting an uphill perception battle as the market questions its valuation and growth profile. Given the stock's recent suffering, though, those concerns aren't likely to run as deep as feared. Prior to its warning, Dell was trading at 20.1x est. FY06 earnings and 22.0x trailing twelve month earnings, which is roughly a 40% discount to its 5-yr historical average.
--Patrick J. O'Hare, Briefing.com
8:29AM BJ Services (BJS)
34.75: BJ Services, a top pure-play pressuring pumping company out of Houston, generated a record quarter on higher activity levels and pricing gains. Net income in fiscal Q4 grew 17% from last quarter and 41% from last year to $134.3 mln. Stripping out two cents from the hurricanes, EPS came in a penny ahead of consensus. Soaring natural gas prices and strong gas fundamentals are driving demand for pressure-pumping services ("PPS").
The stock, a Briefing.com suggested holding for active investors, is up almost 50% year to date. We feel our initial view on the oil service industry has played out as expected, with activity rates ramping materially as producers spend cash windfalls to increase production. We expect to see positive earnings and revenues over the next several quarters for BJS. The company is a great way for investors to play the surging natural gas prices, given the fact that its services are high-value added in unlocking reserves - crucial for producers at a time when reservoirs are maturing. Management expects activity levels will remain strong, resulting in continued growth in its major markets. The company projects FY06 revenues to grow between 15-20%, generating earnings growth of 40-45%.
The stock split two-for-one in July. Management is focused on returning value back to its shareholders. It initiated a dividend and bought back $98.4 mln shares in the quarter with $153.1 mln of the buyback authorization remaining. Shares are trading at 24.8x current and 18.2x forward earnings, well below its larger cap peers.
PPS are specialized applications and techniques used to improve or enhance the rate of flow. Demand is highly correlated with US land rig counts, which increased 7% quarter/quarter and 16% year/year - averaging 1,428 in fiscal Q4. The rise in activity levels in the US market and a rebound in Canada, subsequent to the Spring breakup period, drove BJ's top line by 9% over the prior quarter to $892.3 mln, up 28% y/y.
Roughly half of the top line and 70% of operating earnings come from the US onshore market. In Q4, the US and Mexico pressure pumping revenues grew 5% q/q and 36% y/y to $471 mln - losing 3% due to hurricanes. BJ raised its price book on 11/1 by 11%, following a 115% hike in May, indicating the robust level of demand. As a result, operating margins widened by 400 basis points to 33% over the past year. BJ has had to turn away jobs for a lack of capacity. Last year, the market was concerned with the prospect of overcapacity. Now it's clear the company needs to be more aggressive adding capacity in order to take full advantage of the bull cycle. With $364 mln in cash and no debt, an acquisition is possible to bring on capacity, while simultaneously raising the average age of its fleet. International PPS revenues grew 19% q/q and 21% y/y, again on higher activity and pricing to $227.7 mln led by the Middle East and Canada. Operating margins increased to 15% from 7% just last quarter.
--Kimberly DuBord, Briefing.com
9:35AM Boston Beer Co (SAM) Banc of America Sec initiates NEUTRAL. Target $25. Firm believes 12.0% earnings growth in 2006 is supported by its exposure to super-premium beers (supports 4%-5% sales growth), recent capacity expansion enabling more internal sourcing of product and potential share repurchases. However, they believe higher costs, especially fuel could pose some margin risk.
9:34AM Animas (PUMP) Brean Murray downgrades Strong Buy to ACCUMULATE. Target $21 to $18. Brean Murray downgrades PUMP following Q3 results that came in below their estimates. Firm lowers their 2006 ests to reflect anticipated lower sales from the lingering effects in the southeast and higher SG&A costs in 2H05 related to SOX compliance. In addition to the weather, they say the economy is impacting sales as more people are finding it difficult to pay the required insurance co-payment for a pump.
9:33AM Eagle Hospitality (EHP) AG Edwards downgrades Buy to HOLD. TEF Telefonica downgraded at CSFB, following the co's sannouncement to Buy O2. Firm estimates that the deal will bring around 3% earnings and 6% FCF accretion in 2007. Firm believes that there is a risk that the co will increasingly attract a holding co discount as the co builds its increasingly diverse asset portfolio, with few obvious synergies and limited operating logic.
9:32AM Telefonica S.A. (TEF) CSFB downgrades Neutral to UNDERPERFORM . TEF Telefonica downgraded at CSFB, following the co's sannouncement to Buy O2. Firm estimates that the deal will bring around 3% earnings and 6% FCF accretion in 2007. Firm believes that there is a risk that the co will increasingly attract a holding co discount as the co builds its increasingly diverse asset portfolio, with few obvious synergies and limited operating logic.
9:31AM Macromedia (MACR) Fulcrum downgrades Buy to SELL . Fulcrum downgrades MACR on valuation, saying although they are encouraged by the prospects of the combination with Adobe, the arbitrage based on a 1.38x exchange ratio for ADBE shares is now approaching 1%. They anticipate that the remaining upcoming catalysts - including the Adobe Analysts Day, issuance of combined co guidance, execution of the $1 bln share repurchase program, and Adobe FQ4 EPS results - are likely to occur subsequent to the close of the merger.
9:25AM Brillian (BRLC) CE Unterberg Towbin initiates BUY. Target $9. CE Unterberg initiates BRLC under the assumption that the proposed merger between the co and privately held Syntax will close on November 30, 2005. They note that the merger creates a pure play HDTV co with expertise in the two major HDTV technologies that will likely dominate within a rapidly growing industry - LCD for flat panel TVs of screen sizes 50" and below and LCOS for rear projection TVs (RPTVs) for screen sizes of 55" and above. They believe the co has made significant progress in their LCOS commercialization efforts, in particular, by designing a lower cost and improved manufacturability LCOS microdisplay and light engine.
9:25AM NABI Biopharma (NABI) Bear Stearns downgrades Outperform to PEER PERFORM. Bear Stearns downgrades NABI following the co's announcement of an undisputable failure in its P3 StaphVax trial in ESRD patients. Firm says that while the co stated that StaphVax failed to show ANY reduction in staph infection type 5 and 8 compared with placebo, they had predicted an approximate 75% chance of success. They believe the stock will trade down to the value of its base business before mkt open or shortly thereafter. Firm cuts their fair value est to a range of $6-$8 from $18.
9:24AM Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) Am Tech/JSA Research downgrades Buy to HOLD. Amtech downgrades HPQ saying the risk-reward is not as compelling at current levels, and they believe HPQ could be negatively impacted by: 1) consumer spending that has shifted towards entertainment devices such as iPods, Macs, Sony PSP, Xbox 360, and flat panel monitors/TVs where HPQ does not have a strong position, and 2) strength in notebook PCs (12% of revenue), which is not enough to offset weakness in desktop (16%). Moreover, they believe the desktop PC market could see a continued lull in early 2006, and are becoming more concerned with: 1) aggressive pricing in printers, particularly in monochrome lasers, and 2) some signs of cannibalization of inkjets by lasers.
4:15PM Intl Rectifier announces $100 mln buyback (IRF) 29.18 -0.41:
4:08PM Solectron announces new $250 mln buyback (SLR) 3.56 +0.03:
4:07PM Kopin beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs slightly below consensus (KOPN) 5.46 -0.19:Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.08 per share, $0.06 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.02; revenues rose 10.9% year/year to $25.4 mln vs the $24.1 mln consensus. Co issues downside guidance for Q4, sees Q4 revs of $23-25 mln vs. $25.42 mln consensus.
Close Dow -33.30 at 10406.77, S&P -4.25 at 1202.76, Nasdaq -6.25 at 2114.05: The market failed to extend its biggest two-day rally in almost a year, as disappointing Dell (DELL 29.24 -2.64) guidance and another Fed rate hike prompted modest consolidation efforts. Setting the negative tone in pre-market trading was a warning from Dell, which said after the close Monday it will miss Q3 (Oct) earnings and sales forecasts due to weakness in its U.S. consumer business and U.K. operations. Further underpinning a sense of caution throughout the session was anticipation of a 12th consecutive 25-basis point increase in the fed funds rate to 4.0%. At 2:15 ET, the FOMC did just that and, if not for any other reason except to distract investors from Dell shares trading near their worst levels since May 2003, strangely provided a spark of buying interest that lifted the Dow into positive territory. However, the knee-jerk reaction was short-lived as committee members barely altered the previous meeting's policy directive and, based on the potential of a "cumulative rise in energy and other costs" adding to inflation pressures, said they will continue to raise rates at a "measured" pace, pushing stocks back below the flat line for good. With regard to sector strength and weakness, Utilities paced the day's losses. Third-quarter earnings disappointments from Ameren (AEE 51.64 -0.96), PPL Corp (PPL 30.78 -0.56) and TXU Corp (TXU 90.44 -10.31) as well as weakness in the Treasury market prompted investors to lock in some of the sector's respectable 12.6% year-to-date gain. Bonds were under pressure all day, first selling off after the Oct ISM Index's prices paid component, which rose to its the highest level (84.0) since May 2004, raised inflation fears. Failure to change the policy's language, suggesting more rate hikes are forthcoming, sent bond buyers to the sidelines, as the 10-yr note closed down 4 ticks to yield 4.56%. Also affected by rising bond yields was the interest-rate sensitive Financial sector. Weakness in REITS and insurance following respective quarterly disappointments from Equity Office Properties (EOP 29.00 -1.80) and Marsh & Mclennan (MMC 28.50 -0.65) weighed most heavily on the sector. Consumer Staples was in focus amid encouraging quarterly results from Procter & Gamble (PG 55.85 -0.14) and Colgate-Palmolive (CL 52.45 -0.51), but continued deterioration in the shares prices of both erased early gains. Technology was another influential leader to close lower, as Dell's discouraging pre-announcement crushed Intel (INTC 22.65 -0.85), which derived 19% of its 2004 revenue through sales to Dell. Minimizing sector losses, however, has been strength in Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 28.28 +0.24), which climbed after JP Morgan said it expects HPQ to exceed current Wall Street forecasts when it reports Q4 results on Nov 17. A 13% surge in Computer Sciences (CSC 58.00 +6.75), amid reports that Lockheed Martin (LMT 59.95 -0.61) and three private-equity firms may acquire CSC for about $12 bln, also helped lessen Dell's blow. Despite upbeat closing arguments in the latest Vioxx trial lifting shares of Merck (MRK 28.52 +0.30) and a solid Q3 report from Allergan (AGN 95.23 +5.93), Health Care also closed lower. Reports that the FTC could approve Johnson & Johnson's (JNJ 61.90 -0.72) $25.4 bln acquisition of Guidant (GDT 63.10 +0.10), a deal which has yet to be renegotiated, and downside FY06 guidance from MedcoHealth Solutions (MHS 49.80 -6.70) as well as weakness in health care services, drug and biotech, weighed on the sector. Energy, however, finished higher, benefiting from a rebound in crude oil, which fell below $60/bbl for the first time in three months a day earlier, and better than expected Q3 earnings from Rowan Companies (RDC 34.10 +1.11). BJ Services (BJS 34.60 -0.15), a Briefing.com suggested holding for active investors, beat analysts' Q4 expectations by a penny; but lighter than expected revenues provided investors with an ample opportunity to lock in some of the stock's near 50% year-to-date surge. The Materials sector also posted a modest gain, amid strength in steel, aluminum and chemicals, while reports that Viacom (VIA.B 31.55 +0.58) swung to a profit in Q3 and a 1.7% surge in eBay (EBAY 40.27 +0.66) helped the Consumer Discretionary eke out a small advance. Auto makers were also in focus following October auto sales figures. General Motors (GM 27.19 -0.21), which also saw its rating cut deeper into junk territory at Moody's Investors Service, reported a 23% decline in Oct. US sales -23% (Briefing.com consensus -20.6%) while Ford Motor (F 8.22 -0.10) reported a 26% decline in Oct. U.S. sales (Briefing.com consensus -22.3%). Separately, September construction spending rose the expected 0.5%; however, the volatile report was basically overshadowed by the more influential ISM figures data.DJTA +0.6, DJUA -2.6, DOT +0.5, Nasdaq 100 -0.2, Russell 2000 +0.6, SOX -1.0, XOI +0.3, NYSE Adv/Dec 1532/1752, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1242/1769
3:09PM Tenet Healthcare (THC)
8.22 -0.20: Amid mounting operational challenges, Tenet Healthcare on Tuesday reported a wider-than-expected third quarter loss, due in part to the devastating impact of Hurricane Katrina on the company's six Gulf Coast hospitals. In addition, the hospital operator said, as a result of the recent hurricane activity and continuing soft patient volumes, it will likely fall short of its financial objectives for fiscal 2005.
During the latest quarter, Tenet lost $408 million, or ($0.87) per share, compared with a loss of $70 million, or ($0.15) per share, in the same period last year. Losses from continuing operations were $385 million, or ($0.82) per share. The results included charges totaling $308 million, or $0.66 per share, which includes $0.32 per share associated with the impact of Hurricane Katrina. Apart from these items, the Dallas, TX-based company posted a loss from continuing operations of $77 million, or ($0.16) per share - well below analysts' target of a loss of ($0.05) per share.
Revenue fell 1.7% year/year to $2.39 billion versus the consensus estimate of $2.40 billion. Revenue at hospitals owned at least a year declined 0.3%, as same-hospital admissions, excluding the six hospitals impacted by Hurricane Katrina, slipped 1.4%.
Tenet said its compact-adjusted bad debt ratio increased to 15.1% in the latest period, which includes approximately 2% related to systems conversions, system outages, and the hurricane's adverse effect on cash collections. "While there were a number of both favorable and adverse impacts on the results for the quarter, this bad debt issue was the primary reason we missed the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter," noted Robert Shapard, Tenet's Chief Financial Officer.
Undoubtedly, Hurricane Katrina has dealt a severe blow to Tenet's operations, exacerbating the company's broad range of operational challenges. Aside from the devastation of Katrina, which shuttered several hospitals and killed dozens of its patients, Tenet has struggled to control costs and to raise prices in recent years. Accordingly, disputes with insurers over price increases hindered volume growth and led to the decline in hospital admissions. Even as the company nurses its wounds, the disruption caused by Katrina, along with continuing poor operating performance, does not support an investment in the troubled company.
--Richard Jahnke, Briefing.com
1:39PM TXU Corp. (TXU)
90.95 -9.80: TXU Corp., the nation's sixth largest electricity retailer, reported higher third quarter earnings, but missed Wall Street's expectations. In spite of volatile commodity prices and challenging retail markets, the Dallas, Texas-based company - which is in the midst of restructuring its operations - posted net income of $565 million, or $2.31 per share, compared with $665 million, or $1.34 per share, in the year-ago period. Excluding special items and discontinued operations, earnings from operations were $574 million, or $2.35 per share versus $388 million, or $1.32 per share, last year - $0.11 below the consensus EPS estimate of $2.46. Revenue rose 16.3% from a year ago to $3.19 billion.
TXU said earnings at its energy holdings segment increased 50% from last year to $461 million, while earnings at its electric delivery unit rose 35% to $146 million. TXU attributed the strong growth in operating earnings to ongoing improvements in contribution margins - total revenue less variable costs -and lower operating costs in its core businesses, reflecting the success of its restructuring efforts. The company's restructuring program announced last year includes the disposition of non-core businesses, increased investments in customer service and reliability, and a broad-based operational improvement program.
As a result of the successful execution of its ongoing restructuring initiatives, as well as higher wholesale market prices, TXU increased its outlook for operating earnings by $0.25 to $6.50 to $6.70 per share. This compares with the consensus view of $6.58 per share, according to Reuters Estimates.
Given the lower than expected results, shares of TXU have dropped as much as 12% during the regular trading session. At the same time, however, shares are up about 47% since the beginning of the year. With demand for electricity expected to be strong and natural gas prices remaining high, coupled with ongoing operational improvements, TXU is poised to continue its upward momentum. TXU shares are currently trading at about 9.4x forward earnings.
--Richard Jahnke, Briefing.com
1:28PM Rowan Cos. (RDC)
33.42 +0.43: During the last drilling cycle, utilization rates were 98%. Rowan, an offshore driller heavily-tied to the Gulf of Mexico, experienced rig utilization of 97% for the quarter that ended on September 30th. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita tightened the noose on an already tight market, as they wiped out several rigs in their wake. Rowan lost 4 jack-up rigs, the Odessa, the Halifax, and the Ft. Worth. The Louisiana actually had its hull torn away from its legs, demonstrating the pure power of these storms. Rowan reported an $8.9 mln loss related to these events. It lost 58 rig operating days and $4 mln in drilling revenues. Excluding one-time items, earnings were $0.49 - seven cents above consensus.
Despite the hurricanes, drilling revenues rose 19% sequentially to $217 mln. Drilling margins widened materially in just one quarter to 54%. In order to determine the earnings power of a driller, one needs to look at permitting trends and day rates. Permitting levels continue to rise, providing an indicator of future drilling demand. Rowan's average Gulf of Mexico day rates hit a record $74,400 per day - an increase of 12% from the second quarter and a whopping 60% hike over the past year. Its land rig utilization was 89% - a rise of five points from last year. The average land rig day rate was $18,800, up 10% quarter/quarter and 52% year/year.
Rowan's average offshore day rate worldwide is currently $100,000, which is 20% higher than rates in Q3. Rowan anticipates that even with the loss of revenues from five rigs and the sale of two others, December revenues will be higher than they were in mid-August when these rigs were still counted in its fleet. It feels the "upward pressure in day rates will continue."
The near-term outlook remains favorable for the entire industry. We favor the deepwater segment, which is mobilized by rising day rates and both near and long-term visibility. This is why we continue to recommend Transocean as a holding for active investors. RIG owns the largest and most complete fleet of mobile offshore rigs, operating in virtually every region and every rig type around the world. It operates the premier fleet of deepwater assets, owning 13 of the world's 26 fifth generation rigs. The Houston-based company enjoys significant operating leverage with earnings expected to outpace revenue growth over the next couple years. The market has yet to fully realize RIG's earnings potential and financial flexibility. With a significant cash position, the company can pursue a bevy of growth strategies, both organic and through M&A, along with returning value to shareholders through continued share repurchases.
--Kimberly DuBord, Briefing.com
11:50AM Sirius Satellite (SIRI)
6.45 +0.22: Despite strong revenue and subscriber growth, Sirius Satellite Radio posted a larger third quarter loss due largely to high programming and marketing costs. Sirius' loss widened to $180.4 million, or ($0.14) per share, compared with $169.4 million, or ($0.14) per share, in the same period last year. Analysts, however, were expecting a loss of ($0.16) per share, according to Reuters Estimates.
Revenue for the latest quarter surged to $66.8 million, representing a 250% increase over the $19.1 million reported a year earlier. Sirius added 359,294 subscribers - nearly double last year's 181,948 net additions - bringing its subscriber base to approximately 2.17 million. The company, which boasts more than 120 channels of digital content, said average monthly churn - the percentage of customers to discontinue their subscription - for the third quarter was 1.8% versus 1.5% last year. It added that the churn rate is expected to be about 1.5% for the full year.
Notwithstanding the strong top-line growth and net subscribers, higher operating costs continue to weigh on results as the company continued to spend heavily on content and marketing, as well as customer service. Programming and content expenses increased 25.7% from a year ago to $23.5 million, primarily due to new content agreements and programming expansion. Customer service and billing expenses rose more than 77% to 9.4 million to accommodate a larger customer base, while sales and marketing expenses fell to $38.2 million from $42.6 million last year. Importantly, Sirius said subscriber acquisition costs per gross subscriber addition improved to $149 from $229 a year earlier, and continues to project SAC of under $145 for the full year.
The company raised its full-year subscriber guidance to more than 3 million, but maintained its forecast of a loss from operations of approximately ($540) million on revenue of $230 million. According to Reuters Estimates, analysts, on average, were projecting a pro forma loss of $793.7 million, or ($0.63) per share, on revenue of $234.32 million.
Like its rival XM Satellite Radio (XMSR), Sirius continues to incur large losses as it aggressively invests in operations and adds exclusive programming, such as the NFL, Martha Stewart Living Radio, and Howard Stern. However, with increased traction in automotive OEM distribution channels, along with the addition of new 3G products and promotions for the holiday season, the company is well positioned to drive subscriber growth in the coming months. Furthermore, the addition of Howard Stern in January 2006 should enhance advertising revenue for the company.
--Richard Jahnke, Briefing.com
10:42AM Procter & Gamble (PG)
56.04 +0.05: Even with the rising tides of the hurricanes, energy, and commodity prices, Procter & Gamble produced 4% profit growth in its fiscal first quarter. Able to pass through higher raw material costs, the maker of Pampers, Tide and Pringles brands reported net income of $2.03 bln, or $0.77 per share, compared to $1.94 bln and $0.70 per share a year earlier. Sales grew 8% to $14.79 bln on unit volume growth of 6%. Organic growth, which strips out the effects of mergers and acquisitions, rose an impressive 7%.
This was a solid start to P&G's fiscal year as it proved what a consumer staples company is able to achieve by offering a compelling, market leading portfolio of products. The company said it remains on target with its strategy of a balanced business and geographic breadth "to deliver consistent, reliable net sales and earnings" in good times and in bad. That isn't a wedding vow. Rather, it's the mantra of a consumer products company, whose defensive characteristics are appealing to investors looking for low risk and yield. P&G has both, offering a a beta of 0.54 and a dividend yield of 1.99%.
Looking to its fiscal second quarter, P&G expects earnings of $0.66-0.69 per share, which includes two cents in stock-based compensation expense and $0.09-0.12 in Gillette dilution. For FY06, it sees EPS of $2.54-2.60 including "one time items."
The first quarter was healthy by all accounts with strength in beauty, fabric and home care, and health care. Higher raw material costs more than outpaced the better mix and pricing in the Baby and Family Care unit. The Snacks and Coffee unit was severely impacted by Katrina. Volumes and sales dropped 7% and 5%, respectively. Higher bean costs raised coffee prices, which in turn added 5% to sales. By segment total, sales were as follows: Beauty $4.9 bln (+7%), Family Health $5.1 bln (+8%), and Household Care $4.2 bln (+8%). Cost containment was notable given the headwinds. Cost of goods sold grew 8%, with margins contracting only 20 basis points to 51.6%.
--Kimberly DuBord, Briefing.com
10:07AM Colgate-Palmolive (CL)
53.18 +0.22: Colgate-Palmolive Co. on Tuesday reported higher third quarter profits as ongoing cost-saving initiatives largely offset higher costs for raw materials, as well as increases in oil prices. For its third quarter, the New York-based consumer goods company earned $369.7 million, or $0.67 per share - in line with the consensus estimate - aided by strong sales and unit volume growth. Last year, Colgate reported earnings of $329.0 million, or $0.58 per share.
Worldwide sales climbed 8.0% to an all-time record level of $2.91 billion, reflecting unit volume growth of 5.0%. Positive foreign exchange contributed 2.0% and prices increased 1.0% during the period. The company, whose brands include Softsoap, Speed Stick, and its namesake toothpaste, said North American sales increased 5.0% with unit volume rising 3.5%. North American operating profit increased 2%, despite higher advertising spending, as well as higher transportation and raw material costs. International sales, which account for roughly two-thirds of total revenue, were also strong during the latest quarter with Latin America sales up 18.0% on 5.5% volume growth and European sales up 2.5% on 4.5% volume growth.
Colgate continues to build market share and improve margins as it remains fixated on cost controls and focused business strategies. Consistent with its previously announced restructuring program, from which it expects to save $250 to $300 million annually by 2008, the company said gross margin increased 30 basis points from a year ago to 54.2%, while operating profit increased 12% to 20.8%. The company's shift to advertising spending from promotional spending, combined with improving pricing trends, helped offset rising energy and material costs. For the latest quarter, advertising spending to support Colgate's brands was $327.9 million, with every operating division increasing spending on advertising.
As a result of the strong revenue momentum evidenced in the third quarter, along with ongoing cost-saving initiatives, Colgate said it expects to achieve high single-digit EPS growth this year and plans to return to double digit EPS growth in 2006, excluding restructuring charges.
Colgate's lower exposure to rising oil and material costs, combined with the company's ongoing efforts to reduce costs and focus on developing new products and increased advertising spending, supports continued strong top and bottom line growth. That, along with the company's attractive dividend yield of 2.2%, presents a favorable total return proposition. At the current price level, Colgate trades at approximately 18.1x forward earnings, compared with 19.0x for Procter & Gamble (PG), the world's largest consumer goods company.
--Richard Jahnke, Briefing.com
9:59AM Viacom (VIA)
31.55 +0.50: Aliens on board with higher advertising sales invaded Viacom's third quarter as profits at the entertainment company jumped almost 2%. Profit from continuing operations rose to $735 mln, or $0.47 per share, up from $721.7 mln or $0.42 per share last year. This was a strong showing from Viacom in a quarter that is seasonally its weakest due to ramping production costs ahead of the fall television season. Excluding non-recurring items, earnings of $0.47 per share topped estimates by two cents.
'Tis the season to own media stocks. The group, historically, has performed well throughout the fourth and first quarters. We continue to like Viacom with its impending split-up to occur now by year end and accelerating advertising rates. The new investor-targeted capital structures will unlock the value that resides within (sounds like a horror movie), allowing investors to choose between value (CBS Corp) and growth ("new" Viacom). We also would recommend investors take a second look at Disney (DIS), which we continue to like due to its discounted valuation and growth prospects. The stock is heading into a seasonally strong period driven by its Cable and Broadcasting units. The hurricanes will impact the Parks as expected, but the Studio Entertainment unit could see a resurgence with key releases of Chicken Little and Chronicles of Narnia hitting theaters.
Viacom generated revenue growth of 10% to $5.9 bln in the third quarter, surpassing consensus by almost 2%. What was impressive was that Viacom was able to achieve 5% growth excluding the Entertainment unit. Cable Network revenues grew 15% to $1.7 bln, driven by a 17% jump in advertising revenues. The resurgence in ad growth was broad-based across all channels from MTV to BET. Ancillary revenues, which account for 11% of Cable sales, grew 20% due to higher licensing and syndication fees for Comedy Central and MTV Intl. Operating income rose 11% to $682 mln, although margins slipped 2 points to 41% due to increased programming investment. The Television segment suffered a 2% slip in sales to $2.2 bln, as a mid-single digit rise in advertising growth could not offset lower license revenues. Ad growth came mostly from its CBS/UPN Networks. The licensing decline was caused by fewer titles available for syndication versus the prior quarter. Operating income fell 19% to $376 mln with margins at 17%, down from 21% last year.
The Entertainment unit, which includes Paramount Pictures and Famous Music Publishing, saw revenues soar 54% to $845 mln. The performance was headlined by alien invaders from the movie, War of the Worlds, and the release of Four Brothers and the Bad News Bears. Even DVD sales were higher on contributors from The Longest Yard and Sahara. Operating income grew to $110 mln from $5 mln in the prior year. Its smaller segments, including Radio, Outdoor and Parks & Publishing, all generated low-single digit revenue growth, except Parks, which fell 1%.
--Kimberly DuBord, Briefing.com
8:35AM Dell, Inc. (DELL)
30.51 -1.37: Acknowledging its consumer businesses in the U.S. and U.K. fell short of expectations, Dell now expects fiscal third quarter revenues to be approximately $13.9 billion and its earnings, on a non-GAAP basis, to be $0.39 per share. Following the company's disappointing guidance in August, which sent its stock into a tailspin, consensus estimates had been revised to $0.40 and $14.3 billion. Dell also said it will take a charge of approximately $450 million, or $0.14 per share, in the fiscal third quarter that will yield expected GAAP earnings of $0.25 per share.
The Q3 revision is a disconcerting piece of news that will cause some short-term weakness in the stock. By the same token, though, it is an opportunistic shortcoming for the investment-minded individual who will have the chance to purchase DELL at one of its most reasonable prices in some time.
Anyone who has taken a look at Dell's stock chart recently might be inclined to think Dell's tempered guidance isn't that much of a surprise. To wit, shares of DELL are down 19% since the company reported its Q2 results and down 10% since the start of September. Its revised guidance translates to year/year EPS growth of 21.0% and revenue growth of 11.0%. That's decent growth for most companies, but for a company like Dell that has made a habit out of raising the market's expectations bar, the realization that prior growth expectations will not be met still carries some shock value.
As to be expected, DELL traded down in the after hours session and related companies like Intel (INTC) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) followed suit. For the time being, investors can expect Dell to be fighting an uphill perception battle as the market questions its valuation and growth profile. Given the stock's recent suffering, though, those concerns aren't likely to run as deep as feared. Prior to its warning, Dell was trading at 20.1x est. FY06 earnings and 22.0x trailing twelve month earnings, which is roughly a 40% discount to its 5-yr historical average.
--Patrick J. O'Hare, Briefing.com
8:29AM BJ Services (BJS)
34.75: BJ Services, a top pure-play pressuring pumping company out of Houston, generated a record quarter on higher activity levels and pricing gains. Net income in fiscal Q4 grew 17% from last quarter and 41% from last year to $134.3 mln. Stripping out two cents from the hurricanes, EPS came in a penny ahead of consensus. Soaring natural gas prices and strong gas fundamentals are driving demand for pressure-pumping services ("PPS").
The stock, a Briefing.com suggested holding for active investors, is up almost 50% year to date. We feel our initial view on the oil service industry has played out as expected, with activity rates ramping materially as producers spend cash windfalls to increase production. We expect to see positive earnings and revenues over the next several quarters for BJS. The company is a great way for investors to play the surging natural gas prices, given the fact that its services are high-value added in unlocking reserves - crucial for producers at a time when reservoirs are maturing. Management expects activity levels will remain strong, resulting in continued growth in its major markets. The company projects FY06 revenues to grow between 15-20%, generating earnings growth of 40-45%.
The stock split two-for-one in July. Management is focused on returning value back to its shareholders. It initiated a dividend and bought back $98.4 mln shares in the quarter with $153.1 mln of the buyback authorization remaining. Shares are trading at 24.8x current and 18.2x forward earnings, well below its larger cap peers.
PPS are specialized applications and techniques used to improve or enhance the rate of flow. Demand is highly correlated with US land rig counts, which increased 7% quarter/quarter and 16% year/year - averaging 1,428 in fiscal Q4. The rise in activity levels in the US market and a rebound in Canada, subsequent to the Spring breakup period, drove BJ's top line by 9% over the prior quarter to $892.3 mln, up 28% y/y.
Roughly half of the top line and 70% of operating earnings come from the US onshore market. In Q4, the US and Mexico pressure pumping revenues grew 5% q/q and 36% y/y to $471 mln - losing 3% due to hurricanes. BJ raised its price book on 11/1 by 11%, following a 115% hike in May, indicating the robust level of demand. As a result, operating margins widened by 400 basis points to 33% over the past year. BJ has had to turn away jobs for a lack of capacity. Last year, the market was concerned with the prospect of overcapacity. Now it's clear the company needs to be more aggressive adding capacity in order to take full advantage of the bull cycle. With $364 mln in cash and no debt, an acquisition is possible to bring on capacity, while simultaneously raising the average age of its fleet. International PPS revenues grew 19% q/q and 21% y/y, again on higher activity and pricing to $227.7 mln led by the Middle East and Canada. Operating margins increased to 15% from 7% just last quarter.
--Kimberly DuBord, Briefing.com
9:35AM Boston Beer Co (SAM) Banc of America Sec initiates NEUTRAL. Target $25. Firm believes 12.0% earnings growth in 2006 is supported by its exposure to super-premium beers (supports 4%-5% sales growth), recent capacity expansion enabling more internal sourcing of product and potential share repurchases. However, they believe higher costs, especially fuel could pose some margin risk.
9:34AM Animas (PUMP) Brean Murray downgrades Strong Buy to ACCUMULATE. Target $21 to $18. Brean Murray downgrades PUMP following Q3 results that came in below their estimates. Firm lowers their 2006 ests to reflect anticipated lower sales from the lingering effects in the southeast and higher SG&A costs in 2H05 related to SOX compliance. In addition to the weather, they say the economy is impacting sales as more people are finding it difficult to pay the required insurance co-payment for a pump.
9:33AM Eagle Hospitality (EHP) AG Edwards downgrades Buy to HOLD. TEF Telefonica downgraded at CSFB, following the co's sannouncement to Buy O2. Firm estimates that the deal will bring around 3% earnings and 6% FCF accretion in 2007. Firm believes that there is a risk that the co will increasingly attract a holding co discount as the co builds its increasingly diverse asset portfolio, with few obvious synergies and limited operating logic.
9:32AM Telefonica S.A. (TEF) CSFB downgrades Neutral to UNDERPERFORM . TEF Telefonica downgraded at CSFB, following the co's sannouncement to Buy O2. Firm estimates that the deal will bring around 3% earnings and 6% FCF accretion in 2007. Firm believes that there is a risk that the co will increasingly attract a holding co discount as the co builds its increasingly diverse asset portfolio, with few obvious synergies and limited operating logic.
9:31AM Macromedia (MACR) Fulcrum downgrades Buy to SELL . Fulcrum downgrades MACR on valuation, saying although they are encouraged by the prospects of the combination with Adobe, the arbitrage based on a 1.38x exchange ratio for ADBE shares is now approaching 1%. They anticipate that the remaining upcoming catalysts - including the Adobe Analysts Day, issuance of combined co guidance, execution of the $1 bln share repurchase program, and Adobe FQ4 EPS results - are likely to occur subsequent to the close of the merger.
9:25AM Brillian (BRLC) CE Unterberg Towbin initiates BUY. Target $9. CE Unterberg initiates BRLC under the assumption that the proposed merger between the co and privately held Syntax will close on November 30, 2005. They note that the merger creates a pure play HDTV co with expertise in the two major HDTV technologies that will likely dominate within a rapidly growing industry - LCD for flat panel TVs of screen sizes 50" and below and LCOS for rear projection TVs (RPTVs) for screen sizes of 55" and above. They believe the co has made significant progress in their LCOS commercialization efforts, in particular, by designing a lower cost and improved manufacturability LCOS microdisplay and light engine.
9:25AM NABI Biopharma (NABI) Bear Stearns downgrades Outperform to PEER PERFORM. Bear Stearns downgrades NABI following the co's announcement of an undisputable failure in its P3 StaphVax trial in ESRD patients. Firm says that while the co stated that StaphVax failed to show ANY reduction in staph infection type 5 and 8 compared with placebo, they had predicted an approximate 75% chance of success. They believe the stock will trade down to the value of its base business before mkt open or shortly thereafter. Firm cuts their fair value est to a range of $6-$8 from $18.
9:24AM Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) Am Tech/JSA Research downgrades Buy to HOLD. Amtech downgrades HPQ saying the risk-reward is not as compelling at current levels, and they believe HPQ could be negatively impacted by: 1) consumer spending that has shifted towards entertainment devices such as iPods, Macs, Sony PSP, Xbox 360, and flat panel monitors/TVs where HPQ does not have a strong position, and 2) strength in notebook PCs (12% of revenue), which is not enough to offset weakness in desktop (16%). Moreover, they believe the desktop PC market could see a continued lull in early 2006, and are becoming more concerned with: 1) aggressive pricing in printers, particularly in monochrome lasers, and 2) some signs of cannibalization of inkjets by lasers.
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