AI
Saturday, December 08, 2012 1:24:13 AM
The condition for another exploration phase run-up is now at exactly the early stage, asset acquisition and pre-exploration that have occurred in the past with ERHE.
But with Chad, and Kenya, and the EEZ, there are now multiple potential catalysts. Not just the one ultra-deepwater one which was also one of the first ultra-deepwater drills in the the Gulf of Guinea. Very slow and very high risk frontier geology!
But I absolutely agree we don't see much volume at the best buy zone around the annual lows when the risk is lowest, we see most of it when the share price is much higher, and the risk is the highest.
More investors will take the bet you are talking about. But understand that it is actually the higher risk bet. The science and actual statistics of exploration results is on my side. The prettiest seismic pictures in the world won't magically turn a gas or water deposit into oil. Nor does super high confidence by shareholders at that point lead to discoveries when the odds favour dry holes.
It is not understanding this that leads to disappointed shareholders. It is time for the ERHE longtimers to learn from experience IMO, and take some well earned profits when the herd of new investors comes stampeding in when all the pretty pictures are in pre-drill and both risk and the share price is at its highest.
Alternatively, sure there's lots of other stocks to choose from, but few with a repetitive history of 5 and 10 baggers off of the current share price, and with exactly the catalysts coming which has caused those big wins in the past.
.
But with Chad, and Kenya, and the EEZ, there are now multiple potential catalysts. Not just the one ultra-deepwater one which was also one of the first ultra-deepwater drills in the the Gulf of Guinea. Very slow and very high risk frontier geology!
But I absolutely agree we don't see much volume at the best buy zone around the annual lows when the risk is lowest, we see most of it when the share price is much higher, and the risk is the highest.
More investors will take the bet you are talking about. But understand that it is actually the higher risk bet. The science and actual statistics of exploration results is on my side. The prettiest seismic pictures in the world won't magically turn a gas or water deposit into oil. Nor does super high confidence by shareholders at that point lead to discoveries when the odds favour dry holes.
It is not understanding this that leads to disappointed shareholders. It is time for the ERHE longtimers to learn from experience IMO, and take some well earned profits when the herd of new investors comes stampeding in when all the pretty pictures are in pre-drill and both risk and the share price is at its highest.
Alternatively, sure there's lots of other stocks to choose from, but few with a repetitive history of 5 and 10 baggers off of the current share price, and with exactly the catalysts coming which has caused those big wins in the past.
.
The stock market is simply the transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient. - Warren Buffet
