Wednesday, November 28, 2012 1:06:50 PM
Recent price action explained.
In my opinion, this private placement is the primary reason for the drop in price after hearing good news on the most recent drilling.
Although some may think the timing is suspect, I do not. It takes a long time to line up a buyer for a large private placement and then the two parties have to work through a deal for the pricing. This $7.75 was probably set a while back and probably based on some kind of discount to the market on some average price over some timeframe (ie 30 day moving average minus 20% or something like this). The private placement most likely also has some lockup requirements to prevent 25 million shares hitting the float over a short period of time. The "cost" of getting the benefit to the buyer.
This being said, I see this as a necessary (to get cash resources for AOI) but very temporary price setback. The future price will be dependent on the oil discoveries that this cash will help fund and retain a higher portion of discoveries in the future.
Good luck all
In my opinion, this private placement is the primary reason for the drop in price after hearing good news on the most recent drilling.
Although some may think the timing is suspect, I do not. It takes a long time to line up a buyer for a large private placement and then the two parties have to work through a deal for the pricing. This $7.75 was probably set a while back and probably based on some kind of discount to the market on some average price over some timeframe (ie 30 day moving average minus 20% or something like this). The private placement most likely also has some lockup requirements to prevent 25 million shares hitting the float over a short period of time. The "cost" of getting the benefit to the buyer.
This being said, I see this as a necessary (to get cash resources for AOI) but very temporary price setback. The future price will be dependent on the oil discoveries that this cash will help fund and retain a higher portion of discoveries in the future.
Good luck all
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