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Amateur Investors Weekend Stock Market Analysis (11/17/12)

http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_Nov_17_2012.htm

Overall we could be in the middle stages of a developing Head and Shoulders Top pattern which will take a few more months to complete. The Neckline support area (green line) would coincide with the longer term upward trend line (black line) and June low so look for a possible retest of the mid to upper 1260's at some point. However since we are entering a favorable seasonal period for the market (Thanksgiving through Christmas) it's possible the retest will not occur until sometime in early 2013. Once the Neckline support area is tested then a decent oversold bounce would follow as the 2nd Shoulder develops to complete the pattern in the lower 1400's. Keep in mind we saw a smaller Head and Shoulders Top pattern back in 2011 prior to a 20% drop in the S&P 500.



Meanwhile there has been no panic among investors as neither the Volatility Index or the 5 Day Average of the Put to Call Ratio has risen to levels that have signaled nearing bottoms. So far the 5 Day Average of the VIX hasn't even risen back to the 20 level. Back when the S&P 500 bottomed in June it reached at least the 25 level (point A).



Meanwhile the 5 Day Average of the Put to Call Ratio has risen above the 1.25 level (points B) before bottoms occurred the last three times. Currently the 5 Day Average of the Put to Call Ratio is just above the 1.0 level (point C). Thus there is still quite a bit of complacency among investors as we near the end of the year.