I didn't because it seems pointless to specifically answer a question that assumes as a given a whole bunch of things about MNTA. But I think the case for the uncertainties is strongly supported by the fact that most of the bad things that have happened over the last 13 months were unpredicted.
But, just for grins - since it comes up today... Corcept has a much lower EV and yet it is virtually assured that their drugs, when paired with anti-psychotics, lower the huge weight gain etc seen on anti-psychotics. Could things go wrong (e.g. too many undesirable side effect, or they dawdle too much in pursuing these options)? Absolutely. But on a ROI perspective it is arguable they have at least as good an ROI opportunity while having an even lower EV.