Wednesday, October 31, 2012 4:55:30 PM
Then, given the context element in my prior response...
There's another composite element of awareness that matters.
That is because the trends in the steel industry's use of niobium... are increasingly dependent on QUALITY...
Increasing the benefit and value from increasing the % niobium used in making steel, over time, and increasing the ability of your process technology to fine tune the properties in the steel made... are critically dependent on control of process time and process temperature. But, longer process times with better control of temperature, also requires having vastly better control over the levels of impurities in the inputs.
It didn't matter nearly as much what the quality of the inputs were, back when the process used was "fast"... as with a quick process, the impurities didn't have much time to do their worst. But, as better control of process time and temperature gives better control over the end product features... impurities become a much larger factor, as the longer process times give the impurities more time to do damage and disrupt desired process events, and obviate the benefit of process control. Higher quality products used as inputs will enable getting much better and more consistent results from better process control... and, naturally, they are much more expensive to make... because processing is expensive... "the biggest cost component".
The percentage of niobium used to get the benefit of using it is still pretty small, so the price insensitivity issue I addressed yesterday is relevant... ?
Processing, separation and purification ARE still the largest component of niobium products, or other steel additives, product costs ? If you have ten additives you are using in making your particular steel alloy... you have ten possible sources of contamination to control ? Each one of those sources of risk will have to be improved, with quality assured, to give you the degree of process control you want, to get the benefit you want in the end product. A much improved (and more valuable) steel, produced at much less cost... from pairing niobium use and process control, is worth the cost.
So, spending money on improving process control makes sense, and spending money on cleaning up the impurities in additives makes sense... even though both are expensive... because the value in the benefit still greatly outweighs the cost.
But, it still will make sense to reduce the number of additives that you have to spend money on... as it is expensive to get all of them cleaned up well enough ? If you CAN shift to using fewer additives ? That would mean spending less $ on them ? Wouldn't it make sense to use MORE of the ones that are cheaper already, and that are cheaper to clean up, too ?
Hey! That looks like a "new" driver of future growth in niobium demand ?
And, more expensive niobium, still enjoys some new additional leverage relative to increasing costs with increasing quality requirements, in already more expensive alternatives? Cleaning up molybdenum or chromium, etc ? Maybe WAY more expensive, if only because of the volume, alone... relative to niobium ? (So, the metallurgists have a lot more work to do on alloying, too, to optimize the huge cost benefits of niobium use, while reducing larger costs that are imposed by using other additives.)
It also looks like that "new" driver of future growth in niobium demand... is one that generates WAY more in advantage for Niostar than anyone else in the niobium business ?
The point of all that... in application to considering our interest in Nemegosenda's "unique" features ?
Two aspects:
One is the unique aspects of "what's in the rocks" and "what isn't"... that I think will enable Niostar in making higher purity products at lower cost. The benefit of HAVING that potential, should be obvious, in the context of this post ?
The other is the unique aspect of KNOWING that Nemegosenda ALSO has unique advantages relative to competitors in pairing values in REE and niobium... which will also help to make the (lower) costs more sustainable ?
So, all the issues in considering the processing costs, in context of the prior post... still apply... in context of this post ? Only, in combination... considering both niobium and REE as having more potential in benefit from a shared advantage in processing ?
Uniquely, pairing Nemegosenda's "better" values in REE AND niobium than others have... makes it make WAY more sense, first, to go ahead and try to develop processes in separations that will make the highest quality products that you CAN make, in the fewest steps at the lowest cost... because your entering arguments do give you that much shorter path to doing that at lower cost... relative to competitors.
Nemegosenda's rocks mean BIG advantages exist in the COMBINATION of niobium and REE... not just because both of them are valuable, and because its good to have good values in them, but because of the leverage in value added from the similar requirements in... or benefits from... the PROCESSING of them ?
I think that pairing means Niostar will be able to make MUCH higher purity niobium products at MUCH less cost than competitors CAN. Partly because of the unique aspects in the niobium features in the rocks (including whats not in the rocks), and partly because of the unique aspects pairing niobium and REE values.
I don't expect that, as a stand alone, will necessarily make Niostar want to make Nemegosenda into the highest volume producer, any time soon...
I do think it will make Niostar able to make Nemegosenda into both the LOWEST COST producer, AND the HIGHEST QUALITY, HIGHEST VALUE producer... and the most profitable producer.
And, really, what we care about most as investors isn't "how big" the resulting operation might be made, how quickly, but how profitable it might be made, and how quickly ?
Niobium IS used (relatively) in fairly small quantities, making it relatively price insensitive... while there is A LOT MORE VALUE in higher quality products... ? And, the pace in demand growth in niobium just is what it is ? There WILL need to be a lot more production than there is now. So, the high end focus, where the greatest benefit exists... also happens to be where Niostar's largest advantages are... ?
Pinch me.
There's another composite element of awareness that matters.
That is because the trends in the steel industry's use of niobium... are increasingly dependent on QUALITY...
Increasing the benefit and value from increasing the % niobium used in making steel, over time, and increasing the ability of your process technology to fine tune the properties in the steel made... are critically dependent on control of process time and process temperature. But, longer process times with better control of temperature, also requires having vastly better control over the levels of impurities in the inputs.
It didn't matter nearly as much what the quality of the inputs were, back when the process used was "fast"... as with a quick process, the impurities didn't have much time to do their worst. But, as better control of process time and temperature gives better control over the end product features... impurities become a much larger factor, as the longer process times give the impurities more time to do damage and disrupt desired process events, and obviate the benefit of process control. Higher quality products used as inputs will enable getting much better and more consistent results from better process control... and, naturally, they are much more expensive to make... because processing is expensive... "the biggest cost component".
The percentage of niobium used to get the benefit of using it is still pretty small, so the price insensitivity issue I addressed yesterday is relevant... ?
Processing, separation and purification ARE still the largest component of niobium products, or other steel additives, product costs ? If you have ten additives you are using in making your particular steel alloy... you have ten possible sources of contamination to control ? Each one of those sources of risk will have to be improved, with quality assured, to give you the degree of process control you want, to get the benefit you want in the end product. A much improved (and more valuable) steel, produced at much less cost... from pairing niobium use and process control, is worth the cost.
So, spending money on improving process control makes sense, and spending money on cleaning up the impurities in additives makes sense... even though both are expensive... because the value in the benefit still greatly outweighs the cost.
But, it still will make sense to reduce the number of additives that you have to spend money on... as it is expensive to get all of them cleaned up well enough ? If you CAN shift to using fewer additives ? That would mean spending less $ on them ? Wouldn't it make sense to use MORE of the ones that are cheaper already, and that are cheaper to clean up, too ?
Hey! That looks like a "new" driver of future growth in niobium demand ?
And, more expensive niobium, still enjoys some new additional leverage relative to increasing costs with increasing quality requirements, in already more expensive alternatives? Cleaning up molybdenum or chromium, etc ? Maybe WAY more expensive, if only because of the volume, alone... relative to niobium ? (So, the metallurgists have a lot more work to do on alloying, too, to optimize the huge cost benefits of niobium use, while reducing larger costs that are imposed by using other additives.)
It also looks like that "new" driver of future growth in niobium demand... is one that generates WAY more in advantage for Niostar than anyone else in the niobium business ?
The point of all that... in application to considering our interest in Nemegosenda's "unique" features ?
Two aspects:
One is the unique aspects of "what's in the rocks" and "what isn't"... that I think will enable Niostar in making higher purity products at lower cost. The benefit of HAVING that potential, should be obvious, in the context of this post ?
The other is the unique aspect of KNOWING that Nemegosenda ALSO has unique advantages relative to competitors in pairing values in REE and niobium... which will also help to make the (lower) costs more sustainable ?
So, all the issues in considering the processing costs, in context of the prior post... still apply... in context of this post ? Only, in combination... considering both niobium and REE as having more potential in benefit from a shared advantage in processing ?
Uniquely, pairing Nemegosenda's "better" values in REE AND niobium than others have... makes it make WAY more sense, first, to go ahead and try to develop processes in separations that will make the highest quality products that you CAN make, in the fewest steps at the lowest cost... because your entering arguments do give you that much shorter path to doing that at lower cost... relative to competitors.
Nemegosenda's rocks mean BIG advantages exist in the COMBINATION of niobium and REE... not just because both of them are valuable, and because its good to have good values in them, but because of the leverage in value added from the similar requirements in... or benefits from... the PROCESSING of them ?
I think that pairing means Niostar will be able to make MUCH higher purity niobium products at MUCH less cost than competitors CAN. Partly because of the unique aspects in the niobium features in the rocks (including whats not in the rocks), and partly because of the unique aspects pairing niobium and REE values.
I don't expect that, as a stand alone, will necessarily make Niostar want to make Nemegosenda into the highest volume producer, any time soon...
I do think it will make Niostar able to make Nemegosenda into both the LOWEST COST producer, AND the HIGHEST QUALITY, HIGHEST VALUE producer... and the most profitable producer.
And, really, what we care about most as investors isn't "how big" the resulting operation might be made, how quickly, but how profitable it might be made, and how quickly ?
Niobium IS used (relatively) in fairly small quantities, making it relatively price insensitive... while there is A LOT MORE VALUE in higher quality products... ? And, the pace in demand growth in niobium just is what it is ? There WILL need to be a lot more production than there is now. So, the high end focus, where the greatest benefit exists... also happens to be where Niostar's largest advantages are... ?
Pinch me.
