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Re: arizona1 post# 190534

Friday, 10/26/2012 7:14:19 PM

Friday, October 26, 2012 7:14:19 PM

Post# of 575002
well, i think any individual weather event doesn't prove anything, much like a single poll doesn't necessarily forecast the outcome of the election.
But trends are our friends, and nowadays we can analyze weather trends in ways that were just not possible a generation ago. There may be some effect that due to the internet we are aware of more events that didn't used to make the newspaper outside of the affected areas. things like increased ocean temperatures and the increased energy inputs to the atmosphere from the warmer water are measurable and cannot help but have significant effects. But it is really hard to build a deterministic model at a small scale because there just isn't robust information available from an similar event such as global warming because it is unprecedented, at least since any records with very much precision have been recorded.

Things like carbon dioxide concentrations trapped in gas bubbles in glaciers are correlative for some parameters, but definitely not at a shorter or local scale. Or so in my opinion.

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