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TOB

Re: midtieroil post# 266487

Wednesday, 10/24/2012 2:15:26 PM

Wednesday, October 24, 2012 2:15:26 PM

Post# of 367195
Your assertion was correct as it was exactly how the Value Proposition was presented.

I will stick by my assertion that a smooth curve chart showing that junior exploration companies like ERHC become more valuable all the way through the exploration phase and continue upward whether they find oil or not is not something I will be basing my investing decisions on.



The Value Proposition did not say that the curve would continue upward whether they find oil or not. Rather it was specifically pointed out that a dry well would result in a sell-off, while the chart just illustrated what happens when there is a discovery and a continuing rally.

We've all seen the post exploration phase sell-off when no oil discovery was made, but a second chart would have been useful in further illustrating this point.

The point made was exactly what you are stating, the development stage increase is dependent on an oil discovery, and lower probability than the exploration phase rally which doesn't require an oil discovery.

Thus the Value Proposition is to buy in cheap during the exploration phase, and take some profits pre-drill, which is generally the largest percentage run-up because the Development stage rally is dependent on an oil discovery.

We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful. – Warrant Buffett

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