Zeev...
I understand your point about disposable income, but there are other limitations that come into play as a result of the record consumer debt. It is undeniable that the average consumer is at least somewhat in distress, as is attested to by the rapidly rising levels of bankruptcies and defaults, especially on their homes - mortgage delinquencies and defaults are both at all time highs.
The consumer has been holding the economy up with steady spending at very high rates, which I believe are unsustainable. The source of much of the money used for the extra spending in recent years has been the consumer draining the equity out of his home in absolute terms even as its value has increased. But there is a limit as to how much money can be taken out that has nothing to do with the monthly payment, and that is the value of the home itself - lending institutions will not lend more than the house is worth and normally will lend only some percentage of the home's value (around 80% without some penalties). I believe that substantially all of the equity cash that is reasonably available has already been tapped by those consumers that are willing to do so.
The final factor is that with all the uncertainties in the world, including the slowing economy and rising unemployment, the consumer is even more unwilling to tap into his equity for other than debt consolidation and not to finance new spending.
The net result of all the above is that the consumer can no longer be counted on to support the economy and indeed will be pulling in his horns and drag the economy down.
Just my opinion, though.
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