Monday, October 08, 2012 1:41:44 AM
Poppycock...
Basic chart work shows the "concern" is grossly overblown... your pessimism not likely to be self fulfilling, as it is not confirmed by the usual things you'd look at in the charts to confirm it...
Short term charts show 30 million in accumulation over two months, the weekly charts showing 45 million in the same period, followed by an obvious "shake" that seems to have dinked the daily accumulation for a few million, the weekly not at all, and then its already begun recovering, with accumulation on the daily moving up again... showing it probably WAS "a deliberate shake" by traders, not more than "the usual suspects" manipulating the market for a trade... which is also what it looks like in the market... when you're looking at traders behavior in things other than charts.
The "pessimists" are probably the ones buying the last two or three days, after scamming others out of shares... which explains the structure of the rotation in accumulation in different time periods...
Volume weighted envelopes show the proper trading range still right around $0.045 to $0.06... which is also where I've said that "it should be" (based on other analysis)... for a while...
The trade, thus far... has put SRSR back where the CHART says it should be trading, based on the dynamic that does exist in the buying and selling, as the prior effort in suppression has been relaxed... given the changing nature of the risks on the calendar. The "drive by" effort doesn't come close to weighing for much in that calculus...
Volume matters... and that doesn't mean the minor bit of volume in the recent shake is all that matters, or that it matters more than the larger volume matters in properly weighting volume in the trade... which, when you look at it, shows the recent shake... not shaking anything that matters...
On the weekly chart, CCI has drifted off the peak with the consolidation, but, its looking like routine consolidation within the trade that has now put SRSR back in the trading range it should occupy... based on what the CHART says...
The daily chart shows CCI spiked lower, bottomed out, and is now drifting higher to the right... that pattern you want to see in the CCI in timing a buy...
MACD on the daily does look ready to curl back up... and it has been already for the last three days on the shorter term charts... even as the "pinch" in the shorter term charts has been sustained... indicating the "blow off"... was over blown at the start...
And, that's confirmed by the other momentum indicators... which have NOT confirmed the MACD as anthing other than short term consolidation, while the "drive by" manipulation wasn't very successful in convincing anyone of anything... if you judge that by the chart patterns in the trade that resulted... given the primary impact of that effort... appears it is a chart divergence apparent in the "pinch" on the 60 minute charts...
There are lots of other things apparent in the charts, including comparable patterns in prior trading... which were associated with the approach to resumption of patterns in ongoing moves higher...
Or, you can look at August of 2001 to August of 2012... and forming a beautiful cup... with the trade off the peak forming a pretty nice little handle...
And, both of those things are WAY more consistent with the other elements in the chart... than your pessimistic view... which has nothing I see supporting it... either in the charts... or in the behavior of market participants...
Basic chart work shows the "concern" is grossly overblown... your pessimism not likely to be self fulfilling, as it is not confirmed by the usual things you'd look at in the charts to confirm it...
Short term charts show 30 million in accumulation over two months, the weekly charts showing 45 million in the same period, followed by an obvious "shake" that seems to have dinked the daily accumulation for a few million, the weekly not at all, and then its already begun recovering, with accumulation on the daily moving up again... showing it probably WAS "a deliberate shake" by traders, not more than "the usual suspects" manipulating the market for a trade... which is also what it looks like in the market... when you're looking at traders behavior in things other than charts.
The "pessimists" are probably the ones buying the last two or three days, after scamming others out of shares... which explains the structure of the rotation in accumulation in different time periods...
Volume weighted envelopes show the proper trading range still right around $0.045 to $0.06... which is also where I've said that "it should be" (based on other analysis)... for a while...
The trade, thus far... has put SRSR back where the CHART says it should be trading, based on the dynamic that does exist in the buying and selling, as the prior effort in suppression has been relaxed... given the changing nature of the risks on the calendar. The "drive by" effort doesn't come close to weighing for much in that calculus...
Volume matters... and that doesn't mean the minor bit of volume in the recent shake is all that matters, or that it matters more than the larger volume matters in properly weighting volume in the trade... which, when you look at it, shows the recent shake... not shaking anything that matters...
On the weekly chart, CCI has drifted off the peak with the consolidation, but, its looking like routine consolidation within the trade that has now put SRSR back in the trading range it should occupy... based on what the CHART says...
The daily chart shows CCI spiked lower, bottomed out, and is now drifting higher to the right... that pattern you want to see in the CCI in timing a buy...
MACD on the daily does look ready to curl back up... and it has been already for the last three days on the shorter term charts... even as the "pinch" in the shorter term charts has been sustained... indicating the "blow off"... was over blown at the start...
And, that's confirmed by the other momentum indicators... which have NOT confirmed the MACD as anthing other than short term consolidation, while the "drive by" manipulation wasn't very successful in convincing anyone of anything... if you judge that by the chart patterns in the trade that resulted... given the primary impact of that effort... appears it is a chart divergence apparent in the "pinch" on the 60 minute charts...
There are lots of other things apparent in the charts, including comparable patterns in prior trading... which were associated with the approach to resumption of patterns in ongoing moves higher...
Or, you can look at August of 2001 to August of 2012... and forming a beautiful cup... with the trade off the peak forming a pretty nice little handle...
And, both of those things are WAY more consistent with the other elements in the chart... than your pessimistic view... which has nothing I see supporting it... either in the charts... or in the behavior of market participants...
