Zeev - This looks very much like its going to get noisy sooner ratehr than later.
all the body language is that this is real.
Spring will arrive in the NE in march and after mr Hussein has found a new job the oil price will be a lot nearer to $20 than $40 by the end of March.
No-one should eveer predict wars since they are so serious but it does seem a little far fetched that the US/British armies will not deal with this matter in more than two weeks.
Of course there is a risk of civil war afterwards but this has to be dealt with now or it is going to get far worse.