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Re: Fossil-Fuel post# 2684

Friday, 09/14/2012 11:51:05 AM

Friday, September 14, 2012 11:51:05 AM

Post# of 2846
Here is what your PnL curve would have looked like, had you hung onto the Sept 145 Call bought at $0.78 on Sept 12th...



You would have been up 55% on the exposed capital with some significant positive net Delta in this uptrend, and only small net negative Theta (which means that now time is working against you).

This is why, once you adjust, particularly with single options, you just hold onto them and don't daytrade them. You need to incorporate them into the entire position and manage the net position.

You hedged harder than I did at the time. You went from a net negative Delta of -13, to a positive net Delta of 32 after buying the 45 Delta 145 Sept Call. That is why you would have been up at this point, and I am still down, albeit in far better shape at this point.

My suggestion before opening the 145 Call would have been to only cut the negative Delta in 1/2 and just hedge the position. What you did is turn the directional bias into a bullish net position. This is not bad, but just realize what you did by buying the 145.

In this case it worked out, since the FOMC announced its QE3, which was likely. My intent on my position was to maintain a bearish overall bias, but hedge the upside move.

Hindsight is 20/20 in regards to me not moving to a bullish bias. But, that is the value of knowing what you are actually doing with these adjustments. It would have worked for you this time had you hung onto the 145 Call.

Let me know when and at what price you closed the 145 Call at, so that I can put it into your spread on my PnL graph.



Si vis pacem, para bellum — If you want peace, prepare for war.

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