Biotech Values

[Robert C Jonson]

iwfal, to change the subject, I'm sorry your posts about base rate fallacy got deleted on the PPHM board, and I told them so.

I don't really understand the mechanics behind the fallacy, but what it means to me is that the probability of success for Bavi in their phIII trial can't be predicted accurately. So, in your opinion, is Dew's assertion correct, that Bavi is more likely to fail than to succeed, based on the historical numbers of success?