Thursday, September 29, 2005 3:22:22 AM
Another touching David and Goliath story, huh? AMD's gonna win cause they're quick and nimble, while Intel is old and tired and ready to taste defeat after so many long years of victory? Sounds like it would make entertaining fiction, but in the real world things aren't as romantic or cliche as this.
Take a step back, and you can see which strategies have worked and which ones haven't for both AMD and Intel. But through it all, Intel has remained the one on top through better marketing, better manufacturing, better relationships with their vendors, and a more congruent set of product lines that they can leverage to form a better total platform. As much as some people would like the battle to be fought on the grounds of performance benchmarks, reality doesn't work that way. Performance is simply one aspect of many that is necessary to succeed. AMD made an excellent product, but their manufacturing shortcomings made the ramp very slow; their marketing shortcomings held back mind share; their vendor relationship shortcomings held back wide adoption; and finally, their reliance on 3rd party chipsets made it difficult to keep up with new features. Hence the first couple years after Opteron's introduction did not manage to topple the Intel empire.
It took AMD more than 2 years from Opteron's first introduction to have a truly competitive platform that's available in volume from multiple vendors with the features that end-users are looking for, and they've only just now begun to scratch the surface. The scales had to practically tip over to make this possible, and they did due to a series of strategic blunders by Intel. You may think that AMD's current success has no reason to slow down, but those that know better recognize that Intel has not lost what made them such a good competitor in the beginning. Their manufacturing, their marketing, their OEM relationships, and their strong ancillary products lines (chipsets, networking, etc) are all reasons why they will grow and prosper going forward, justifying a stock valuation that expands along with their earnings per share.
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