Biotech Values

[mcbio]

It's in Phase II:

clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/study/NCT01171898?term=NCT01171898&rank=1

The drug itself is a somewhat more potent than MDV3100, but quite unclear if that would correspond with any sort of clinical benefit given that MDV3100 is very well tolerated. Also seems likely to me from what I've read about the licensing deal that Medivation would be found to have rights to this drug if it ever were to go anywhere.

Thanks Peter. Yeah, it sounded from David Miller's follow-up post to Patrick (#msg-69072889 ) that MDVN doesn't have much to worry about here.

Looks like MDVN is now sitting at about a $4B market cap. What do you envision as peak sales potential for enzalutamide? And what's a reasonable multiple on such potential sales to arrive at fair target for MDVN shares? Is $3B/year possible down the road, particularly if doctors start to use the drug in earlier-stage patients (as I think you may believe)? Perhaps greater in such a scenario? If we assume $3B/year peak potential and assign multiple of 6x sales on $1.5B (since MDVN is in 50:50 split), that would put us at $9B market cap for the shares. Is that realistic?

Obviously the foregoing is assuming nothing with respect to the breast cancer indication and there seems to be some buzz and expectation that enzalutamide may work in breast cancer as well. I think it's safe to say the shares are probably cheap right now, even at $4B market cap, if the breast cancer indication pans out as well. (Not implying shares aren't reasonable at current valuation even without success in breast cancer indication.)