Biotech Values

[poorgradstudent]

EXEL:

The only drug approved for advanced MTC is Asatrazenca’s Caprelsa, which recently got approved. It generated $12M in the first half of 2012, most of it in the US. As cabo appears more effective than Caprelsa, it can easily generate $40M in peak sales in the US alone.

At first glance I'm not sure I understand all parts of this reasoning. Is the author suggesting that Caprelsa's $24 million dollar run rate can be improved upon because patients with MTC choose not to take it and more will end up choosing to take cabo due to higher efficacy? Or they'll be on cabo longer due to its efficacy, in turn generating more revenue?

If cabo is approved in MTC, I wonder if docs treating prostate cancer will take the opportunity to start playing with the drug? The flip side here is that the FDA may, to a small degree, consider potential off-label use of cabo and be a little more stringent with the MTC application.

Given the dramatic bone scan data, I'd be really surprised if doctors wouldn't be at all interested in testing the drug out in some of their PC patients.