I strongly disagree. The chance that LLY will bring Solanezumab to market is much less than 25%, IMO.
On the other hand, LLY’s multiple pipeline failures almost guarantee that the BoD will effectuate some kind of change. The CEO may be forced out and the corporate policy against large-scale M&A may have to be relaxed.
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated in any area of human knowledge!”