Not not up but down.
Gold has been an overinflated bubble based on suggestive arguments.
No country really uses gold in their monetary systems anymore. The US has moved off of it in the 1930's and cannot as well as could not move back without certain destruction of its economy.
Gold is inflated as a hedge and based on its value against currencies but the reality is, its value against currencies are lies. There is 0 correlation of gold to US, China, Russia, and Europe's currencies anymore. No matter how high or low gold goes, currency prices do not change.
As much as I understand the point behind gold moving based on your statement, the truth is the correlation is a myth. However I can see a bullish move based on a safety hedge when we get closer to the fiscal cliff date. Also feel the GOP platform is smoke and mirrors, not a reality.
At some point the truth will be out and gold will crash. I expect that to occur soon since the US will not do a QE3. It cannot have any impact at this point and will send the country into a deep recession based on inflation. Bernake knows this and that is why QE3 keeps getting talked about without any action. Bond buying will continue but that really is beneficial for the government. It allows yields to remain low and in turn interest against the debt remains really low. I feel this offsets the dilutive effect on the dollar. It means nothing to the economy but huge impacts on the governments funding.
With that said, gold mining companies have increased production by a fractional amount year over year. An unstable gold and slow growth mining should mean this ETF has a solid chance to collapse.
If the etf hits 23 I think its time to go short. If it gets to 18 its time to go long.
JMHO
Market Data 
Markets 
AI
